Politics on Polymarket
Who's betting on politics on Polymarket? Page 4
Every big politics market on Polymarket, with the odds and where the historically profitable wallets sit on each. Every holder is scored by their track record.
- Open markets
- 483 big enough to read
- Traded
- $3782M across them
- Smart money leans
- 424 markets with a clear side
- Closed lately
- 134 in the last 30 days
Open markets
483 markets, biggest first · page 4 of 7- Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$1.3M vol.Yes 35%No 66%Smart money: No
- Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$1.2M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: Yes
- Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?$1.2M vol.Yes 14%No 87%Smart money: No
- US strike on Colombia by December 31?$1.2M vol.Yes 21%No 80%Smart money: Yes
- Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026?$1.2M vol.Yes 5%No 95%Smart money: No
- Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?$1.2M vol.Yes 69%No 32%Smart money: No
- Will Donald Trump be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?$1.2M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Mahmoud Ahmadinejad be head of state in Iran end of 2026?$1.1M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?$1.1M vol.Yes 71%No 30%Smart money: Yes
- Will John N. Kennedy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?$1.1M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election?$1.1M vol.Yes 33%No 67%Smart money: No
- Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026?$1.1M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?$1.1M vol.Yes 10%No 91%Smart money: Yes
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?$1.1M vol.Yes 6%No 95%Smart money split
- Will Trump be impeached by December 31, 2026?$1.1M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?$1.1M vol.Yes 99%No 1%Smart money: Yes
- Will Alex Padilla win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$1.0M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Nooshi Dadgostar be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?$1.0M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Will Josh Stein win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$1.0M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?$1.0M vol.Yes 67%No 33%Smart money split
- Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026?$1.0M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Candace Owens win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?$1.0M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Marion Maréchal win the 2027 French presidential election?$1.0M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money split
- Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?$1.0M vol.Yes 74%No 27%Smart money: Yes
- US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?$984K vol.Yes 39%No 61%Smart money: No
- Will Hassan Rouhani be head of state in Iran end of 2026?$955K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?$952K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Adam Schiff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$946K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Ebba Busch be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?$941K vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026?$929K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Abigail Spanberger win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$923K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Maryam Rajavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?$907K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Аndrey Gyurov win the next Bulgarian presidential election?$901K vol.Yes 26%No 74%Smart money: No
- Will Elissa Slotkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$894K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Vladimir Padrino López be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?$891K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Will Mike Johnson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?$884K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Gilad Erdan be the next Prime Minister of Israel?$882K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Nothing Ever Happens: 2026$868K vol.Yes 82%No 19%Smart money: No
- Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?$866K vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?$861K vol.Yes 33%No 68%Smart money: No
- Will Ali Motahari be head of state in Iran end of 2026?$860K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$851K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: Yes
- Will Alex Padilla win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$851K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?$844K vol.Yes 28%No 72%Smart money: Yes
- Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?$843K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will the Republican Party hold exactly 54 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?$841K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?$834K vol.Yes 32%No 69%Smart money: No
- Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?$826K vol.Yes 6%No 95%Smart money: No
- Iran leadership change by October 31?$821K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Rick Scott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?$816K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money split
- Will Likud win 20-24 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?$814K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money split
- Will Likud win 35 or more seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?$813K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Will there be no Hormuz agreement?$802K vol.Yes 94%No 6%Smart money: No
- Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?$792K vol.Yes 56%No 44%Smart money: No
- Will Ahmad Vahidi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?$787K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money split
- Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?$782K vol.Yes 8%No 93%Smart money split
- Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$780K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: Yes
- Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026?$771K vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: No
- Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027?$771K vol.Yes 9%No 92%Smart money split
- US strike on Mexico by December 31?$771K vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?$763K vol.Yes 30%No 71%Smart money: Yes
- Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?$751K vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: No
- Will Yannick Jadot win the 2027 French presidential election?$750K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?$746K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?$742K vol.Yes 28%No 73%Smart money: No
- US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 31?$730K vol.Yes 99%No 1%Smart money: Yes
- Lindsay Clancy convicted of murder by December 31, 2026?$724K vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: No
- Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?$714K vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- Will Adam Schiff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$704K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?$669K vol.Yes 28%No 72%Smart money: No
- Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?$665K vol.Yes 63%No 37%Smart money: No
- Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain?$659K vol.Yes 10%No 90%Smart money: Yes
- Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?$658K vol.Yes 44%No 56%Smart money: No
- US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?$655K vol.Yes 58%No 42%Smart money: No
- Will Israel strike 6 countries in 2026?$654K vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?$651K vol.Yes 5%No 96%Smart money: No
- Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026?$651K vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: No
- Will Ofer Winter be the next Prime Minister of Israel?$648K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will the Republican Party hold exactly 52 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?$646K vol.Yes 6%No 94%Smart money split
- Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?$641K vol.Yes 6%No 94%Smart money: No
- Will Russia invade another country in 2026?$638K vol.Yes 5%No 96%Smart money: No
- Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028?$638K vol.Yes 32%No 68%Smart money: No
- Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?$630K vol.Yes 45%No 56%Smart money split
- Israel Election: Any Coalition Wins a Majority?$629K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money split
- Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to no prison time?$627K vol.Yes 52%No 49%Smart money: No
- Will Israel strike 7 countries in 2026?$620K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: Yes
- Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?$613K vol.Yes 73%No 28%Smart money split
- Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?$606K vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- Will Sadegh Larijani be head of state in Iran end of 2026?$591K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?$589K vol.Yes 5%No 96%Smart money: No
- Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026?$586K vol.Yes 18%No 82%Smart money: No
- Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026?$583K vol.Yes 78%No 22%Smart money: No
- Will Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?$581K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: Yes
- Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?$581K vol.Yes 12%No 88%Smart money: Yes
- Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?$576K vol.Yes 81%No 20%Smart money: No
- Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?$563K vol.Yes 71%No 30%Smart money: No
- US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?$561K vol.Yes 82%No 19%Smart money: Yes
- Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026?$560K vol.Yes 83%No 18%Smart money: Yes
- Will the Republican Party hold exactly 28 or 29 governorships after the 2026 midterm elections?$559K vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money split
- Will the Democrats win the Nevada governor race in 2026?$556K vol.Yes 80%No 20%Smart money: Yes
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