Politics on Polymarket
Who's betting on politics on Polymarket? Page 6
Every big politics market on Polymarket, with the odds and where the historically profitable wallets sit on each. Every holder is scored by their track record.
- Open markets
- 483 big enough to read
- Traded
- $3782M across them
- Smart money leans
- 424 markets with a clear side
- Closed lately
- 134 in the last 30 days
Closed in the last 30 days
134 markets · page 6 of 7- Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?$8.0M vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: No
- Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$7.8M vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: Yes
- Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$7.7M vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: Yes
- Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$7.7M vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: Yes
- Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$7.6M vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money split
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?$7.2M vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: No
- Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?$6.3M vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: Yes
- Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$5.6M vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: Yes
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?$5.6M vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money split
- Will Augusto Cury win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$5.5M vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money split
- Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$5.0M vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: Yes
- Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?$4.5M vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money split
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?$4.2M vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: Yes
- Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$4.1M vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: Yes
- Will Pablo Marçal win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$4.0M vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: No
- US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?$3.7M vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money split
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?$3.7M vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: Yes
- Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?$3.4M vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: No
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?$2.9M vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: No
- Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$2.7M vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: No
- Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?$2.6M vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money split
- US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?$2.5M vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: No
- Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$2.4M vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: Yes
- Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?$2.4M vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: No
- Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$2.3M vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: No
- US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?$2.1M vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: No
- Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?$2.1M vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: Yes
- Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?$2.0M vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money split
- US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12?$2.0M vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: No
- Trump out as President by September 30?$2.0M vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: No
- Putin out as President of Russia by September 30, 2026?$2.0M vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: No
- US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?$1.9M vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: Yes
- Iran leadership change by September 30?$1.7M vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money split
- Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?$1.7M vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money split
- Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?$1.6M vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: Yes
- Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%?$1.5M vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: No
- Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?$1.5M vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money split
- Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?$1.5M vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money split
- Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?$1.5M vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: No
- Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?$1.5M vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: Yes
- Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?$1.5M vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: No
- Will Renan Santos finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$1.5M vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: Yes
- Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by at least 12%?$1.4M vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: Yes
- Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026?$1.3M vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: No
- Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?$1.3M vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: Yes
- Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?$1.3M vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: Yes
- Trump renames AI by September 30?$1.3M vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: Yes
- Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%?$1.3M vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: Yes
- Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?$1.2M vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: Yes
- Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?$1.2M vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: No
- Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?$1.2M vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: Yes
- Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?$1.2M vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money split
- Will there be no Hormuz agreement?$1.1M vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: No
- Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?$1.1M vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: Yes
- US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 15?$1.0M vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: Yes
- Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?$1.0M vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: No
- Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?$1.0M vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: Yes
- Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$991K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: No
- Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?$958K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: Yes
- Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?$935K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: Yes
- Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?$913K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: Yes
- Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?$897K vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: Yes
- Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?$895K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: Yes
- Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Republicans win the Senate?$895K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: Yes
- Will Fernando Haddad finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$814K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: Yes
- Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?$797K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: Yes
- Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?$769K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: Yes
- US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 17?$766K vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: Yes
- Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$750K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: Yes
- Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?$740K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: Yes
- Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?$704K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: No
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from October 5 to October 7, 2026?$702K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: No
- Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?$680K vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: No
- Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?$669K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: Yes
- US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 18?$657K vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: Yes
- Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amapá?$652K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: Yes
- Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 31?$643K vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: Yes
- Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition?$579K vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money split
- US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 12?$578K vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: Yes
- Will Ronaldo Caiado finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$571K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money split
- Will Augusto Cury finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$560K vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: Yes
- Will Brad Bradford win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?$549K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: No
- Will Andrey Gyurov win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by 20%-30%?$536K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: No
- Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Democrats win the Senate?$525K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: No
- US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 7?$524K vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: No
- Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by at least 12%?$522K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: Yes
- Will Luca Niculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?$521K vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: No
- Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026?$504K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: No
- Katie Zacharia out as Press Secretary by October 31?$487K vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: No
- Will Alexandru Nazare be the next Prime Minister of Romania?$473K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: Yes
- Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 15?$456K vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money split
- Will Trump say "Ammunition" this week?$455K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: No
- Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?$441K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: No
- Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?$432K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: No
- US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 16?$428K vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: Yes
- Will Romeu Zema finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$422K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: Yes
- Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?$413K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money split
- Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?$407K vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: Yes
- Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?$405K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: No
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before September 30, 2026$392K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: No
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