Who's betting on “Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?”?
Politics · $1.3M volume · Ends October 26, 2026 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 7¢ and No at 93¢, a 93% implied chance of No. $1.3M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on October 26, 2026.
59% of the money on Yes and 80% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 21 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 17 points. A week ago, Yes by 13 points.
468 wallets hold a position worth $195K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 458 of them. The largest Yes holder is 0x740159EcEd2AAF9edcb7FAc8A0B31D18C0F847a5-1776860965793, with $16K on it, $38K lifetime profit over 9 markets (44% won). The largest No holder is segment3, with $21K on it, $9.1K lifetime profit over 4 markets (100% won).
3 snipers (proven, high-edge traders) hold $21K on No; the insider radar has flagged 3 wallets betting $13K on Yes.
- Smart money share
- 59% ▲ 2 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 199
- Money on it
- $39K
- Holders' winrate
- 46%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 3 · $13K
- Smart money share
- 80% ▲ 6 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 269
- Money on it
- $155K
- Holders' winrate
- 73%
- Snipers
- 3 · $21K
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0x740159EcEd2AAF9edcb7FAc8A0B31D18C0F847a5-1776860965793 | $16K | +$38K | 44% of 9 |
| PunisherReturn | $7.6K | +$0 | - |
| valetecaolho | $2.6K | -$21K | 31% of 119 |
| ohmytrade | $2.5K | -$70 | 33% of 3 |
| bttnjapan | $1.5K | +$0 | - |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
More markets in Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory
- Flávio Bolsonaro 4-8%$956K vol.Yes 38%No 63%Smart money: Yes
- Flávio Bolsonaro 12%+$899K vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- Flávio Bolsonaro <4%$747K vol.Yes 40%No 61%Smart money: Yes
- Lula da Silva <4%$639K vol.Yes 14%No 87%Smart money: Yes
- Lula da Silva 4-8%$494K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Lula da Silva 8-12%$450K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Lula da Silva 12%+$314K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
Who's betting on Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory →
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Questions
Who is betting on "Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?"?
468 wallets hold a position worth $195K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 458 of them. The largest Yes holder is 0x740159EcEd2AAF9edcb7FAc8A0B31D18C0F847a5-1776860965793, with $16K on it, $38K lifetime profit over 9 markets (44% won). The largest No holder is segment3, with $21K on it, $9.1K lifetime profit over 4 markets (100% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 7¢ and No at 93¢, a 93% implied chance of No. $1.3M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on October 26, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
59% of the money on Yes and 80% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 21 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 17 points. A week ago, Yes by 13 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on October 26, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Is there insider betting on this market?
3 wallets on Yes ($13K) match the pattern of insider bets: a fresh or dormant wallet putting a lot on long odds. A flag is a pattern, not proof.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.