Who's betting on “Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?”?
Politics · $75M volume · Ends January 1, 2027 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 20¢ and No at 81¢, an 81% implied chance of No. $75M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
45% of the money on Yes and 81% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 36 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 36 points. A week ago, No by 38 points.
2,000 wallets hold a position worth $6.8M in all; Polkyo has a track record for 1,997 of them. The largest Yes holder is TheQuietRisk, with $195K on it, $469K lifetime profit over 104 markets (21% won). The largest No holder is denizz, with $302K on it, $2.3M lifetime profit over 1,006 markets (66% won).
6 snipers (proven, high-edge traders) hold $63K on No.
- Smart money share
- 45%
- Holders
- 1,000
- Money on it
- $1.3M
- Holders' winrate
- 61%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 81%
- Holders
- 1,000
- Money on it
- $5.6M
- Holders' winrate
- 74%
- Snipers
- 6 · $63K
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| TheQuietRisknoise | $195K | +$469K | 21% of 104 |
| xm39 | $171K | -$163K | 94% of 66 |
| SecondWindCapital | $152K | -$146K | 82% of 34 |
| onepingonly | $74K | -$36K | 86% of 7 |
| Kryptogramnoise | $46K | +$39K | 53% of 51 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| denizzwhale | $302K | +$2.3M | 66% of 1,006 |
| scoutwhale | $228K | +$305K | 90% of 1,025 |
| LulaVaiPerderwhale | $209K | +$507K | 79% of 443 |
| rdbawhale | $204K | +$485K | 71% of 248 |
| 0xAD96914D7762DAC84EbBABAfE366AE8ff24Dd49whale | $176K | +$157K | 85% of 105 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
Other big politics markets
- Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$55M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$54M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$53M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$51M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$49M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$45M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$45M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?$45M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
Questions
Who is betting on "Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?"?
2,000 wallets hold a position worth $6.8M in all; Polkyo has a track record for 1,997 of them. The largest Yes holder is TheQuietRisk, with $195K on it, $469K lifetime profit over 104 markets (21% won). The largest No holder is denizz, with $302K on it, $2.3M lifetime profit over 1,006 markets (66% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 20¢ and No at 81¢, an 81% implied chance of No. $75M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
45% of the money on Yes and 81% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 36 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 36 points. A week ago, No by 38 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.