Who's betting on “Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?”?
Politics · $45M volume · Ends January 1, 2027 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 2¢ and No at 98¢, a 98% implied chance of No. $45M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
16% of the money on Yes and 65% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 49 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 49 points. A week ago, No by 48 points.
2,000 wallets hold a position worth $5.7M in all; Polkyo has a track record for 1,995 of them. The largest Yes holder is comon119, with $28K on it, $4.0M lifetime loss over 1,000 markets (96% won). The largest No holder is Avamax, with $471K on it, $14K lifetime profit over 761 markets (74% won).
2 snipers (proven, high-edge traders) hold $12K on No; the insider radar has flagged 1 wallet betting $2.0K on Yes.
- Smart money share
- 16%
- Holders
- 1,000
- Money on it
- $129K
- Holders' winrate
- 71%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 1 · $2.0K
- Smart money share
- 65%
- Holders
- 1,000
- Money on it
- $5.6M
- Holders' winrate
- 77%
- Snipers
- 2 · $12K
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| comon119 | $28K | -$4.0M | 96% of 1,000 |
| 0x396f9914e99B2D35b7cC1A5Fb41b05d7062aF2a8-1775607429220 | $14K | -$5.8K | - |
| 0xB886580698eDE4b18DE3E446b2D8Da8bCEdd81B3-1767532547794whale | $13K | +$35K | 49% of 1,032 |
| epicsundayfunk | $10K | +$0 | - |
| Precious-Radar-Anchovy | $7.9K | -$830 | 63% of 40 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| Avamaxwhale | $471K | +$14K | 74% of 761 |
| Anjunwhale | $448K | +$787K | 66% of 1,833 |
| winforretire | $392K | -$1.3K | 52% of 25 |
| 0xB9d89bef8c935082F6a86355bD9667402D92275A-1751857844680 | $382K | +$48K | 95% of 19 |
| llh | $316K | -$74K | 91% of 67 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
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Questions
Who is betting on "Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?"?
2,000 wallets hold a position worth $5.7M in all; Polkyo has a track record for 1,995 of them. The largest Yes holder is comon119, with $28K on it, $4.0M lifetime loss over 1,000 markets (96% won). The largest No holder is Avamax, with $471K on it, $14K lifetime profit over 761 markets (74% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 2¢ and No at 98¢, a 98% implied chance of No. $45M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
16% of the money on Yes and 65% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 49 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 49 points. A week ago, No by 48 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Is there insider betting on this market?
1 wallet on Yes ($2.0K) match the pattern of insider bets: a fresh or dormant wallet putting a lot on long odds. A flag is a pattern, not proof.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.