How Polkyo works

The core idea: a wallet's record as of the day it entered

For each market, Polkyo groups holders by the side they hold and scores each wallet by its lifetime realized profit and loss as of the day before it first entered that market.

Not profit in this market: after the market resolves, the winning side made money by definition, which says nothing about skill. Not profit today: a market that has drifted toward one side gives all its holders a paper gain, which would make that side look skilled whoever they are.

Measured as of entry, the figure also leaves the market itself out automatically: the wallet had not traded it yet, so none of its outcome can leak into the score.

Wallet records are rebuilt from public trading history and on-chain data rather than taken from a profit figure published by Polymarket.

Smart money share

The smart money share of a side is the part of that side's money held by wallets that are in profit overall. When the profitable wallets hold 72% of one side and 31% of the other, that gap is the signal.

Every signal is scored against markets that have already resolved, after fees, so you can see how often following the smart money has actually paid.

The Polkyo Score

One number from 0 to 100 for how good a trader's record is and how much of it a follower could plausibly copy. Only wallets with at least 10 closed markets get one.

Edge, 40%

ROI: profit per dollar traded. 10% or more scores in full.

Confidence, 25%

The lower bound of a 95% confidence interval on the winrate (Wilson), so 18 wins out of 20 counts for less than 180 out of 200.

Proof, 20%

How many markets the record covers, on a log scale up to 500.

Profit, 15%

Lifetime profit, on a log scale up to $1M.

Behaviour

The total is multiplied by 1 for a wallet that trades like a person, 0.9 for mixed or unknown, and 0.6 for automated, market-making or yield-farming wallets, whose record a person cannot follow by hand.

Trader archetypes

A wallet counts as smart when it is in profit overall, has at least 20 closed markets and has traded at least $10,000. Smart wallets are then sorted by edge (ROI) and confidence (the winrate's lower bound), first match wins:

Outlier

A huge ROI (20%+) on too little proof to trust it yet.

Noise

Too little evidence either way.

Sniper

High edge on a proven record: ROI of 5% or more, high confidence and $10,000+ profit. The rarest and most copyable, under 1% of wallets.

Whale

$1M or more traded.

Grinder

A very reliable winrate on thin margins.

Balanced

Profitable and proven, without an extreme.

The insider radar

The public cases of insider betting on Polymarket look alike: money arrives in a new or barely used account and goes in one large bet on an outcome the market prices as unlikely, in a market whose answer someone can know in advance. Often several fresh wallets do it together.

Polkyo flags such positions within one snapshot, scores each flag from 0 to 100 on how fresh the wallet is, how big the bet, how long the odds, how concentrated, what kind of market and how many other flagged wallets took the same side, and settles every flag when its market resolves, so you can see whether flagged bets actually win more often than their price implied.

Data and freshness

Polkyo reads only public data: Polymarket's markets, trades and holder positions, and the Polygon blockchain. The holders of every liquid market are snapshotted every few minutes and stored, so you can scrub back through who held what and when.

Polkyo never trades for you and never asks for wallet keys. Paper trading and paper copy trading use play money.

What you can do with it

• Markets Every open Polymarket market by category, each side scored by who holds it, with decided markets filtered out.
• AI Edge Scanner Ranks markets where the smart money and the price disagree the most, with an AI-written read of each.
• Ending soon Markets about to close, with where the profitable wallets sit before the answer is known.
• Smart Money Flow Which side every top wallet takes, as it happens.
• Whale radar Large and unusual position changes, and clusters of wallets moving together.
• Smart Traders Profitable, proven wallets sorted into archetypes (sniper, whale, grinder and more).
• Rising stars New wallets that are suddenly making real money.
• Leaderboard Traders ranked by winrate, ROI and the Polkyo Score.
• Insiders Fresh or dormant wallets betting big on long odds, scored and settled when their market resolves.
• Alerts In-app, browser push, email and Telegram alerts on prices, traders, new snipers and insider bets.
• Mention markets "Will X say Y?" markets, with word prices next to the speaker's history.
• Watchlist Starred markets and traders, and how far each has moved since.
• Paper trading Trade any market with play money to test your calls.
• Paper copy trading Mirror any trader with play money and see how following them would have gone.
• Morning brief A daily summary of what moved and what the smart money did.
• API The data behind every page, as JSON.

Questions