Who's betting on “Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%?”?
Politics · $494K volume · Ends October 26, 2026 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 0¢ and No at 100¢, a 100% implied chance of No. $494K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on October 26, 2026.
72% of the money on Yes and 78% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 7 points. A day ago it was split. A week ago it was split.
195 wallets hold a position worth $2.7K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 194 of them. The largest Yes holder is balthazar, with $313 on it, $1.2M lifetime profit over 44,054 markets (53% won). The largest No holder is BeginnersLuck2, with $398 on it, $23K lifetime profit over 1,339 markets (98% won).
- Smart money share
- 72% ▼ 5 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 168
- Money on it
- $1.9K
- Holders' winrate
- 53%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 78% ▲ 1 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 27
- Money on it
- $780
- Holders' winrate
- 89%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| balthazarwhale | $313 | +$1.2M | 53% of 44,054 |
| 0x4488…e319whale | $245 | +$661K | 54% of 1,169 |
| valetecaolho | $212 | -$21K | 31% of 119 |
| 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271whale | $107 | +$65K | 63% of 5,496 |
| troimwhale | $90 | +$81K | 66% of 791 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| BeginnersLuck2whale | $398 | +$23K | 98% of 1,339 |
| OLOTH | $100 | -$12K | 98% of 1,073 |
| endgam | $50 | +$29 | 98% of 261 |
| GingerMcKennanoise | $40 | +$39K | 35% of 4,367 |
| HeathWiegand | $31 | -$0 | 44% of 9 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
More markets in Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory
- Flávio Bolsonaro 8-12%$1.3M vol.Yes 7%No 93%Smart money: No
- Flávio Bolsonaro 4-8%$956K vol.Yes 38%No 63%Smart money: Yes
- Flávio Bolsonaro 12%+$899K vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- Flávio Bolsonaro <4%$747K vol.Yes 40%No 61%Smart money: Yes
- Lula da Silva <4%$639K vol.Yes 14%No 87%Smart money: Yes
- Lula da Silva 8-12%$450K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Lula da Silva 12%+$314K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
Who's betting on Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory →
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Questions
Who is betting on "Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%?"?
195 wallets hold a position worth $2.7K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 194 of them. The largest Yes holder is balthazar, with $313 on it, $1.2M lifetime profit over 44,054 markets (53% won). The largest No holder is BeginnersLuck2, with $398 on it, $23K lifetime profit over 1,339 markets (98% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 0¢ and No at 100¢, a 100% implied chance of No. $494K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on October 26, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
72% of the money on Yes and 78% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 7 points. A day ago it was split. A week ago it was split.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on October 26, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.