Who's betting on “Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?”?
Politics · $639K volume · Ends October 26, 2026 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 14¢ and No at 87¢, an 87% implied chance of No. $639K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on October 26, 2026.
84% of the money on Yes and 30% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 54 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 29 points. A week ago, Yes by 49 points.
353 wallets hold a position worth $69K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 346 of them. The largest Yes holder is balthazar, with $10K on it, $1.2M lifetime profit over 44,054 markets (53% won). The largest No holder is lissartter, with $5.0K on it, $270K lifetime loss over 2,742 markets (56% won).
1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $59 on Yes.
- Smart money share
- 84% ▲ 9 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 278
- Money on it
- $59K
- Holders' winrate
- 60%
- Snipers
- 1 · $59
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 30% ▼ 16 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 75
- Money on it
- $9.9K
- Holders' winrate
- 53%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| balthazarwhale | $10K | +$1.2M | 53% of 44,054 |
| flawfencewhale | $8.1K | +$480K | 75% of 478 |
| 0x4488…e319whale | $6.0K | +$661K | 54% of 1,169 |
| ThanksGivingTurkey1001whale | $3.6K | +$39K | 68% of 422 |
| 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271whale | $3.2K | +$65K | 63% of 5,496 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| lissartter | $5.0K | -$270K | 56% of 2,742 |
| caspar1248 | $707 | -$47K | 40% of 8,273 |
| glm4.1.fundnoise | $476 | +$593K | 32% of 105,072 |
| WhoseHouseRamsHouse | $432 | -$28K | 96% of 895 |
| Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedwhale | $333 | +$154K | 56% of 13,103 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
More markets in Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory
- Flávio Bolsonaro 8-12%$1.3M vol.Yes 7%No 93%Smart money: No
- Flávio Bolsonaro 4-8%$956K vol.Yes 38%No 63%Smart money: Yes
- Flávio Bolsonaro 12%+$899K vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- Flávio Bolsonaro <4%$747K vol.Yes 40%No 61%Smart money: Yes
- Lula da Silva 4-8%$494K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Lula da Silva 8-12%$450K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Lula da Silva 12%+$314K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
Who's betting on Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory →
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Questions
Who is betting on "Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?"?
353 wallets hold a position worth $69K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 346 of them. The largest Yes holder is balthazar, with $10K on it, $1.2M lifetime profit over 44,054 markets (53% won). The largest No holder is lissartter, with $5.0K on it, $270K lifetime loss over 2,742 markets (56% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 14¢ and No at 87¢, an 87% implied chance of No. $639K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on October 26, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
84% of the money on Yes and 30% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 54 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 29 points. A week ago, Yes by 49 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on October 26, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.