Who's betting on “US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?”?
Politics · $3.3M volume · Ends October 23, 2026 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 99¢ and No at 1¢, a 99% implied chance of Yes. $3.3M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on October 23, 2026.
74% of the money on Yes and 84% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 10 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 15 points. A week ago, No by 6 points.
1,059 wallets hold a position worth $646K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 1,027 of them. The largest Yes holder is 0x8B4bcA1D794779E66e023D44391B2A86C5ab541B-1769764313952, with $30K on it, $160K lifetime loss over 887 markets (83% won). The largest No holder is petehegseth, with $854 on it, $4.1K lifetime profit over 55 markets (89% won).
3 snipers (proven, high-edge traders) hold $2.3K on Yes; 1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $7 on No; the insider radar has flagged 1 wallet betting $2.5K on No.
- Smart money share
- 74% ▲ 4 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 736
- Money on it
- $642K
- Holders' winrate
- 76%
- Snipers
- 3 · $2.3K
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 84% ▼ 1 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 323
- Money on it
- $3.9K
- Holders' winrate
- 65%
- Snipers
- 1 · $7
- Insider flags
- 1 · $2.5K
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0x8B4bcA1D794779E66e023D44391B2A86C5ab541B-1769764313952 | $30K | -$160K | 83% of 887 |
| cashywhale | $28K | +$557K | 74% of 1,025 |
| 0xff1e352d5310eab17d1e9fd7e00ec33f16c05e2 | $26K | -$5.2K | 97% of 663 |
| scoutwhale | $26K | +$305K | 90% of 1,025 |
| mrwhite700 | $21K | +$1.8K | 82% of 11 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| petehegsethbalanced | $854 | +$4.1K | 89% of 55 |
| tetrosewhale | $836 | +$213K | 55% of 565 |
| meagainsttheworldwhale | $249 | +$147K | 76% of 1,056 |
| 881112whale | $239 | +$442K | 60% of 1,101 |
| heypresto | $137 | -$426 | - |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
More markets in US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
- October 31$5.9M vol.Yes 79%No 22%Smart money split
- October 24$1.5M vol.Yes 99%No 1%Smart money: No
- November 30$884K vol.Yes 36%No 65%Smart money: No
- December 31$733K vol.Yes 28%No 73%Smart money: Yes
- October 28$653K vol.Yes 88%No 13%Smart money: No
- November 15$474K vol.Yes 47%No 54%Smart money: No
- November 8$139K vol.Yes 61%No 39%Smart money: Yes
- November 22$70K vol.Yes 38%No 63%Smart money: No
- September 30$2.5M vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: No
- October 15$2.1M vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: No
- October 12$2.0M vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: No
- October 17$766K vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: Yes
- US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 25?$734K vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money split
- October 18$657K vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: Yes
- October 7$524K vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: No
- October 16$428K vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: Yes
- October 9$345K vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: Yes
- October 5$135K vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: Yes
Other big politics markets
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$75M vol.Yes 21%No 80%Smart money: No
- Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$55M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$54M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$53M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$51M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$49M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$45M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$45M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?"?
1,059 wallets hold a position worth $646K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 1,027 of them. The largest Yes holder is 0x8B4bcA1D794779E66e023D44391B2A86C5ab541B-1769764313952, with $30K on it, $160K lifetime loss over 887 markets (83% won). The largest No holder is petehegseth, with $854 on it, $4.1K lifetime profit over 55 markets (89% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 99¢ and No at 1¢, a 99% implied chance of Yes. $3.3M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on October 23, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
74% of the money on Yes and 84% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 10 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 15 points. A week ago, No by 6 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on October 23, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Is there insider betting on this market?
1 wallet on No ($2.5K) match the pattern of insider bets: a fresh or dormant wallet putting a lot on long odds. A flag is a pattern, not proof.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.