Who's betting on “US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 22?”?
Politics · $80K volume · Ends November 23, 2026 · Updated October 25, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 39¢ and No at 62¢, a 62% implied chance of No. $80K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 23, 2026.
39% of the money on Yes and 72% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 34 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 60 points.
186 wallets hold a position worth $28K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 182 of them. The largest Yes holder is anoin123, with $6.1K on it, $4.9M lifetime loss over 1,460 markets (60% won). The largest No holder is Te0n2, with $2.8K on it, $42K lifetime profit over 749 markets (62% won).
- Smart money share
- 39% ▲ 13 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 79
- Money on it
- $11K
- Holders' winrate
- 60%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 72% ▼ 13 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 107
- Money on it
- $17K
- Holders' winrate
- 63%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| anoin123 | $6.1K | -$4.9M | 60% of 1,460 |
| classifiedwhale | $1.2K | +$1.1M | 58% of 1,417 |
| Umarothwhale | $539 | +$7.6K | 70% of 530 |
| 98Ddd05Cde45d05C4fC06f4093759FFDDFSFFSDDVFbalanced | $446 | +$12K | 62% of 208 |
| heineson | $349 | +$30 | 56% of 9 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| Te0n2whale | $2.8K | +$42K | 62% of 749 |
| GollumGekkowhale | $2.6K | +$281K | 73% of 1,157 |
| mombilwhale | $1.8K | +$497K | 63% of 1,035 |
| MultiQuant24hAgent | $1.5K | +$0 | - |
| HoldenBloodfeast | $1.2K | -$1.3K | 69% of 93 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
More markets in US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
- October 31$6.1M vol.Yes 84%No 17%Smart money split
- October 22$3.5M vol.Yes 100%No 0%Smart money: No
- October 24$1.6M vol.Yes 99%No 1%Smart money split
- November 30$891K vol.Yes 35%No 66%Smart money: No
- October 28$824K vol.Yes 91%No 10%Smart money: No
- December 31$739K vol.Yes 28%No 73%Smart money: Yes
- November 15$493K vol.Yes 46%No 55%Smart money: No
- November 8$142K vol.Yes 62%No 39%Smart money: Yes
- September 30$2.5M vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: No
- October 15$2.1M vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: No
- October 12$2.0M vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: No
- October 17$766K vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: Yes
- US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 25?$734K vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money split
- October 18$657K vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: Yes
- October 7$524K vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: No
- October 16$428K vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: Yes
- October 9$345K vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: Yes
- October 5$135K vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: Yes
Other big politics markets
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$75M vol.Yes 20%No 81%Smart money: No
- Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$55M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$54M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$53M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$51M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$49M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$45M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?$45M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
Questions
Who is betting on "US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 22?"?
186 wallets hold a position worth $28K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 182 of them. The largest Yes holder is anoin123, with $6.1K on it, $4.9M lifetime loss over 1,460 markets (60% won). The largest No holder is Te0n2, with $2.8K on it, $42K lifetime profit over 749 markets (62% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 22?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 39¢ and No at 62¢, a 62% implied chance of No. $80K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 23, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
39% of the money on Yes and 72% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 34 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 60 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 23, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.