Who's betting on “US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?”?
Politics · $6.0M volume · Ends October 31, 2026 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 82¢ and No at 19¢, an 82% implied chance of Yes. $6.0M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on October 31, 2026.
53% of the money on Yes and 57% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it was split. A week ago it was split.
1,218 wallets hold a position worth $788K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 1,201 of them. The largest Yes holder is anoin123, with $129K on it, $4.9M lifetime loss over 1,429 markets (60% won). The largest No holder is 0x3fd0…0022, with $35K on it, $22K lifetime loss over 235 markets (67% won).
3 snipers (proven, high-edge traders) hold $21K on Yes; 2 snipers (proven, high-edge traders) hold $421 on No; the insider radar has flagged 2 wallets betting $7.9K on No.
- Smart money share
- 53% ▼ 3 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 746
- Money on it
- $642K
- Holders' winrate
- 70%
- Snipers
- 3 · $21K
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 57% ▼ 2 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 472
- Money on it
- $146K
- Holders' winrate
- 59%
- Snipers
- 2 · $421
- Insider flags
- 2 · $7.9K
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| anoin123 | $129K | -$4.9M | 60% of 1,429 |
| carlos484balanced | $63K | +$51K | 62% of 42 |
| 0xf5592765133941c40C77e52Bc56bbe7EC167F462-1755612447740 | $53K | -$389K | 82% of 502 |
| scoutwhale | $20K | +$302K | 90% of 1,027 |
| m4dssniper | $19K | +$24K | 72% of 687 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0x3fd0…0022 | $35K | -$22K | 67% of 235 |
| tetrosewhale | $30K | +$210K | 55% of 565 |
| Arbguywhale | $9.8K | +$481K | 45% of 1,009 |
| meagainsttheworldwhale | $4.8K | +$147K | 76% of 1,056 |
| SoulSolutions | $4.4K | +$17K | 100% of 1 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
More markets in US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
- October 22$3.4M vol.Yes 100%No 0%Smart money: No
- October 24$1.5M vol.Yes 100%No 1%Smart money split
- November 30$888K vol.Yes 36%No 65%Smart money: No
- December 31$736K vol.Yes 29%No 71%Smart money: Yes
- October 28$706K vol.Yes 89%No 12%Smart money: No
- November 15$490K vol.Yes 45%No 55%Smart money: No
- November 8$140K vol.Yes 61%No 40%Smart money: Yes
- November 22$76K vol.Yes 38%No 62%Smart money: No
- September 30$2.5M vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: No
- October 15$2.1M vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: No
- October 12$2.0M vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: No
- October 17$766K vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: Yes
- US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 25?$734K vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money split
- October 18$657K vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: Yes
- October 7$524K vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: No
- October 16$428K vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: Yes
- October 9$345K vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: Yes
- October 5$135K vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: Yes
Other big politics markets
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$75M vol.Yes 19%No 82%Smart money: No
- Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$55M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$54M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$53M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$51M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$49M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$45M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$45M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?"?
1,218 wallets hold a position worth $788K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 1,201 of them. The largest Yes holder is anoin123, with $129K on it, $4.9M lifetime loss over 1,429 markets (60% won). The largest No holder is 0x3fd0…0022, with $35K on it, $22K lifetime loss over 235 markets (67% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 82¢ and No at 19¢, an 82% implied chance of Yes. $6.0M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on October 31, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
53% of the money on Yes and 57% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it was split. A week ago it was split.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on October 31, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Is there insider betting on this market?
2 wallets on No ($7.9K) match the pattern of insider bets: a fresh or dormant wallet putting a lot on long odds. A flag is a pattern, not proof.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.