Who's betting on “US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?”?
Politics · $736K volume · Ends December 31, 2026 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 29¢ and No at 71¢, a 71% implied chance of No. $736K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on December 31, 2026.
93% of the money on Yes and 82% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 11 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 6 points. A week ago, Yes by 24 points.
364 wallets hold a position worth $121K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 359 of them. The largest Yes holder is m4ds, with $5.9K on it, $24K lifetime profit over 687 markets (72% won). The largest No holder is VRVTeam, with $10K on it, $46K lifetime profit over 82 markets (52% won).
1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $5.9K on Yes; 1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $355 on No.
- Smart money share
- 93% ▲ 6 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 173
- Money on it
- $35K
- Holders' winrate
- 62%
- Snipers
- 1 · $5.9K
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 82% ▲ 1 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 191
- Money on it
- $86K
- Holders' winrate
- 59%
- Snipers
- 1 · $355
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| m4dssniper | $5.9K | +$24K | 72% of 687 |
| Valen9whale | $5.5K | +$233K | 62% of 895 |
| SquirrelTheMerchantwhale | $4.5K | +$88K | 68% of 274 |
| ULYSSES18whale | $3.2K | +$9.9K | 56% of 218 |
| Vecelliobalanced | $2.9K | +$3.8K | 48% of 219 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| VRVTeamwhale | $10K | +$46K | 52% of 82 |
| alwaysOnwhale | $9.1K | +$28K | 75% of 1,020 |
| rainbowlilieswhale | $7.4K | +$225K | 43% of 2,372 |
| classifiedwhale | $5.5K | +$1.1M | 58% of 1,412 |
| l3t0noise | $5.3K | +$11K | 48% of 111 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
More markets in US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
- October 31$6.0M vol.Yes 82%No 19%Smart money split
- October 22$3.4M vol.Yes 100%No 0%Smart money: No
- October 24$1.5M vol.Yes 100%No 1%Smart money split
- November 30$888K vol.Yes 36%No 65%Smart money: No
- October 28$706K vol.Yes 89%No 12%Smart money: No
- November 15$490K vol.Yes 45%No 55%Smart money: No
- November 8$140K vol.Yes 61%No 40%Smart money: Yes
- November 22$76K vol.Yes 38%No 62%Smart money: No
- September 30$2.5M vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: No
- October 15$2.1M vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: No
- October 12$2.0M vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: No
- October 17$766K vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: Yes
- US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 25?$734K vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money split
- October 18$657K vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: Yes
- October 7$524K vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: No
- October 16$428K vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: Yes
- October 9$345K vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: Yes
- October 5$135K vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: Yes
Other big politics markets
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$75M vol.Yes 19%No 82%Smart money: No
- Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$55M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$54M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$53M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$51M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$49M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$45M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$45M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?"?
364 wallets hold a position worth $121K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 359 of them. The largest Yes holder is m4ds, with $5.9K on it, $24K lifetime profit over 687 markets (72% won). The largest No holder is VRVTeam, with $10K on it, $46K lifetime profit over 82 markets (52% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 29¢ and No at 71¢, a 71% implied chance of No. $736K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on December 31, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
93% of the money on Yes and 82% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 11 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 6 points. A week ago, Yes by 24 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on December 31, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.