Who's betting on “US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?”?
Politics · $474K volume · Ends November 16, 2026 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 47¢ and No at 54¢, a 54% implied chance of No. $474K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 16, 2026.
56% of the money on Yes and 78% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 23 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 22 points. A week ago it was split.
395 wallets hold a position worth $87K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 388 of them. The largest Yes holder is anoin123, with $12K on it, $4.9M lifetime loss over 1,429 markets (60% won). The largest No holder is paddaa, with $7.0K on it, $279K lifetime profit over 1,425 markets (58% won).
- Smart money share
- 56%
- Holders
- 194
- Money on it
- $40K
- Holders' winrate
- 62%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 78% ▲ 1 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 201
- Money on it
- $46K
- Holders' winrate
- 61%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| anoin123 | $12K | -$4.9M | 60% of 1,429 |
| classifiedwhale | $5.5K | +$1.1M | 58% of 1,412 |
| Ditto321whale | $3.9K | +$25K | 50% of 657 |
| 0xff1e352d5310eab17d1e9fd7e00ec33f16c05e2 | $2.4K | -$5.2K | 97% of 663 |
| Dragontreewhale | $1.8K | +$154K | 58% of 1,097 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| paddaawhale | $7.0K | +$279K | 58% of 1,425 |
| wienerdogwhale | $5.1K | +$26K | 56% of 295 |
| meagainsttheworldwhale | $4.1K | +$147K | 76% of 1,056 |
| brownewhale | $3.0K | +$54K | 76% of 327 |
| tetrasewhale | $2.8K | +$965K | 65% of 1,185 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
More markets in US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
- October 31$5.9M vol.Yes 79%No 22%Smart money split
- October 22$3.3M vol.Yes 99%No 1%Smart money: No
- October 24$1.5M vol.Yes 99%No 1%Smart money: No
- November 30$884K vol.Yes 36%No 65%Smart money: No
- December 31$733K vol.Yes 28%No 73%Smart money: Yes
- October 28$653K vol.Yes 88%No 13%Smart money: No
- November 8$139K vol.Yes 61%No 39%Smart money: Yes
- November 22$70K vol.Yes 38%No 63%Smart money: No
- September 30$2.5M vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: No
- October 15$2.1M vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: No
- October 12$2.0M vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: No
- October 17$766K vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: Yes
- US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 25?$734K vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money split
- October 18$657K vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: Yes
- October 7$524K vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: No
- October 16$428K vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: Yes
- October 9$345K vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: Yes
- October 5$135K vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: Yes
Other big politics markets
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$75M vol.Yes 21%No 80%Smart money: No
- Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$55M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$54M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$53M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$51M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$49M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$45M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$45M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?"?
395 wallets hold a position worth $87K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 388 of them. The largest Yes holder is anoin123, with $12K on it, $4.9M lifetime loss over 1,429 markets (60% won). The largest No holder is paddaa, with $7.0K on it, $279K lifetime profit over 1,425 markets (58% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 47¢ and No at 54¢, a 54% implied chance of No. $474K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 16, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
56% of the money on Yes and 78% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 23 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 22 points. A week ago it was split.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 16, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.