Who's betting on “US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?”?
Politics · $141K volume · Ends November 9, 2026 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 62¢ and No at 39¢, a 62% implied chance of Yes. $141K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 9, 2026.
81% of the money on Yes and 73% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 8 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 20 points. A week ago, Yes by 18 points.
255 wallets hold a position worth $50K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 250 of them. The largest Yes holder is classified, with $13K on it, $1.1M lifetime profit over 1,412 markets (58% won). The largest No holder is petehegseth, with $5.9K on it, $4.1K lifetime profit over 55 markets (89% won).
1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $109 on No.
- Smart money share
- 81% ▲ 22 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 130
- Money on it
- $31K
- Holders' winrate
- 63%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 73% ▼ 6 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 125
- Money on it
- $19K
- Holders' winrate
- 68%
- Snipers
- 1 · $109
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| classifiedwhale | $13K | +$1.1M | 58% of 1,412 |
| anoin123 | $3.0K | -$4.9M | 60% of 1,429 |
| M2sx92kljs42whale | $2.2K | +$63K | 78% of 514 |
| nope3050balanced | $1.6K | +$772 | 61% of 149 |
| Tenebrus7whale | $1.3K | +$155K | 66% of 1,516 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| petehegsethbalanced | $5.9K | +$4.1K | 89% of 55 |
| wienerdogwhale | $2.7K | +$26K | 56% of 295 |
| ElsaMi | $1.6K | -$17K | 71% of 407 |
| headsh0twhale | $1.3K | +$33K | 51% of 274 |
| meagainsttheworldwhale | $770 | +$147K | 76% of 1,056 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
More markets in US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
- October 31$6.0M vol.Yes 83%No 18%Smart money split
- October 22$3.4M vol.Yes 100%No 0%Smart money: No
- October 24$1.6M vol.Yes 100%No 1%Smart money split
- November 30$889K vol.Yes 37%No 64%Smart money: No
- October 28$746K vol.Yes 90%No 11%Smart money: No
- December 31$737K vol.Yes 30%No 71%Smart money: Yes
- November 15$490K vol.Yes 46%No 55%Smart money: No
- November 22$78K vol.Yes 40%No 61%Smart money: No
- September 30$2.5M vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: No
- October 15$2.1M vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: No
- October 12$2.0M vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: No
- October 17$766K vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: Yes
- US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 25?$734K vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money split
- October 18$657K vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: Yes
- October 7$524K vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: No
- October 16$428K vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: Yes
- October 9$345K vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: Yes
- October 5$135K vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: Yes
Other big politics markets
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$75M vol.Yes 19%No 81%Smart money: No
- Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$55M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$54M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$53M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$51M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$49M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$45M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$45M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?"?
255 wallets hold a position worth $50K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 250 of them. The largest Yes holder is classified, with $13K on it, $1.1M lifetime profit over 1,412 markets (58% won). The largest No holder is petehegseth, with $5.9K on it, $4.1K lifetime profit over 55 markets (89% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 62¢ and No at 39¢, a 62% implied chance of Yes. $141K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 9, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
81% of the money on Yes and 73% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 8 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 20 points. A week ago, Yes by 18 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 9, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.