Politics on Polymarket
Who's betting on politics on Polymarket? Page 5
Every big politics market on Polymarket, with the odds and where the historically profitable wallets sit on each. Every holder is scored by their track record.
- Open markets
- 483 big enough to read
- Traded
- $3782M across them
- Smart money leans
- 424 markets with a clear side
- Closed lately
- 134 in the last 30 days
Open markets
483 markets, biggest first · page 5 of 7- Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?$553K vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?$553K vol.Yes 55%No 46%Smart money: No
- Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026?$550K vol.Yes 21%No 79%Smart money split
- US military draft authorized in 2026?$545K vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.75% at the end of 2026?$541K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Trump and Putin not meet?$537K vol.Yes 16%No 85%Smart money: Yes
- Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by December 31, 2026?$536K vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- Will Candace Owens win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$535K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by December 31$534K vol.Yes 8%No 93%Smart money: No
- Will Israel strike 8 countries in 2026?$532K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- France declares state of emergency by October 31, 2026?$531K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Democrats win the Senate?$529K vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money split
- Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Qatar / UAE before 2027?$525K vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in US before 2027?$523K vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money split
- Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?$522K vol.Yes 7%No 94%Smart money: No
- Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?$519K vol.Yes 17%No 83%Smart money: No
- Will Rick Scott win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$513K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Ilija Srdanović be the next prime minister of Serbia?$513K vol.Yes 17%No 84%Smart money: Yes
- Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.0% at the end of 2026?$504K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027?$502K vol.Yes 14%No 86%Smart money: No
- Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?$502K vol.Yes 88%No 13%Smart money: No
- Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?$502K vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money split
- Will John McEntee win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?$499K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027?$496K vol.Yes 32%No 69%Smart money: Yes
- Will Turkey join the Abraham Accords before 2027?$489K vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: Yes
- Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?$482K vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?$480K vol.Yes 92%No 8%Smart money split
- Will Muhammad Mirbaqiri be head of state in Iran end of 2026?$479K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will the Republican Party hold exactly 55 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?$477K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Will Texas enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027?$477K vol.Yes 21%No 79%Smart money: No
- Will the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?$467K vol.Yes 86%No 14%Smart money: Yes
- Will Alberto Núñez Feijóo be the next Prime Minister of Spain?$466K vol.Yes 82%No 19%Smart money: Yes
- Will Russia invade a NATO country by December 31, 2026?$462K vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: No
- Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?$457K vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: No
- Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$457K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027?$453K vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: No
- Will the Republicans win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?$452K vol.Yes 14%No 86%Smart money: No
- Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026?$444K vol.Yes 38%No 63%Smart money split
- Will Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel be head of state in Iran end of 2026?$443K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Kash Patel out by December 31?$441K vol.Yes 20%No 81%Smart money: Yes
- Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?$440K vol.Yes 39%No 62%Smart money: Yes
- Will Massoud Rajavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?$437K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Modi out by December 31, 2026?$436K vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: No
- Will Saeed Jalili be head of state in Iran end of 2026?$426K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Lucie Castets win the 2027 French presidential election?$424K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money split
- Will Doug Burgum win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$414K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026?$412K vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- Will Strait of Hormuz traffic not return to normal in 2026?$411K vol.Yes 89%No 12%Smart money: No
- Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by June 30, 2027?$411K vol.Yes 11%No 90%Smart money split
- Israeli airspace closed by October 31, 2026?$410K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: Yes
- Will John N. Kennedy win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$406K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Israel strike 10 countries in 2026?$402K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Iran leadership change by November 30?$401K vol.Yes 8%No 93%Smart money: Yes
- Will Venezuela become 51st state?$400K vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- Will Tim Scott win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$394K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will the Republican Party hold exactly 53 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?$394K vol.Yes 6%No 94%Smart money: No
- Will Ali Asghar Hejazi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?$394K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Republicans win the Senate?$394K vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- Will Mike Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$391K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt?$391K vol.Yes 72%No 28%Smart money split
- Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?$384K vol.Yes 30%No 71%Smart money: No
- US imports Russian diesel by October 31?$376K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Simona Mohamsson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?$376K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money split
- Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027?$374K vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- Will the Republicans win the Nevada governor race in 2026?$370K vol.Yes 21%No 80%Smart money: No
- Will oil be below $85 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate?$369K vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- Will the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026?$366K vol.Yes 69%No 31%Smart money: No
- Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Belarus before 2027?$366K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Will oil be below $85 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate?$359K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Trump and Putin meet next in China?$359K vol.Yes 81%No 20%Smart money: Yes
- Will Israel strike 13 countries in 2026?$358K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026?$356K vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- Will Iran Reconstruction Funding be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?$348K vol.Yes 6%No 95%Smart money split
- Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026?$346K vol.Yes 8%No 92%Smart money: No
- Will anyone be jailed over Epstein disclosures? $344K vol.Yes 6%No 94%Smart money: No
- Will Mary Peltola win the 2026 Alaska governor election?$343K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Cilia Flores released from custody by December 31, 2026?$343K vol.Yes 5%No 95%Smart money: No
- Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026?$342K vol.Yes 8%No 92%Smart money: Yes
- Will Daniel Helldén be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?$339K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Will Louisiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027?$339K vol.Yes 19%No 82%Smart money split
- Will Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani be head of state in Iran end of 2026?$333K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Oklahoma enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027?$331K vol.Yes 22%No 78%Smart money split
- Will Mohsen Araki be head of state in Iran end of 2026?$330K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
Closed in the last 30 days
134 markets- Will Adanech Abiebie be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?$83M vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: Yes
- Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$62M vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: No
- Will Gedion Timothewos be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?$56M vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: Yes
- Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$48M vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: Yes
- Will Shimelis Abdisa be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?$42M vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: No
- Will Belete Molla be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?$32M vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: Yes
- Will Berhanu Nega be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?$30M vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: Yes
- Will Demeke Mekonnen be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?$29M vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: Yes
- Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$17M vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: No
- Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$15M vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money split
- Will Alesa Mengesha be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?$14M vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: Yes
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?$12M vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money split
- Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$11M vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: Yes
- Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$10M vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: Yes
- Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$10M vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: Yes
- Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$9.2M vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: No
- Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$8.0M vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: Yes
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