Who's betting on “Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?”?
Politics · $453K volume · Ends January 1, 2027 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 5¢ and No at 96¢, a 96% implied chance of No. $453K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
16% of the money on Yes and 79% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 64 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 64 points. A week ago, No by 64 points.
736 wallets hold a position worth $65K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 735 of them. The largest Yes holder is HoneybeeAlliance, with $1.9K on it, $45K lifetime loss over 8 markets (0% won). The largest No holder is 0x8931…a90c, with $24K on it, $29K lifetime profit over 609 markets (95% won).
- Smart money share
- 16%
- Holders
- 286
- Money on it
- $2.9K
- Holders' winrate
- 19%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 79%
- Holders
- 450
- Money on it
- $62K
- Holders' winrate
- 82%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| HoneybeeAlliance | $1.9K | -$45K | 0% of 8 |
| RememberAmalekwhale | $206 | +$837K | 73% of 1,102 |
| 0x13d6345D463242CF90C4AA5B76DEEBdd92e05cc7-1762783615676 | $141 | -$8.0K | 84% of 49 |
| vmhz | $92 | +$0 | - |
| theravada | $64 | +$647 | 71% of 7 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0x8931…a90cwhale | $24K | +$29K | 95% of 609 |
| 0xd269…6b9a | $10K | -$21K | 88% of 91 |
| 500EURbalanced | $4.0K | +$872 | 63% of 95 |
| Loyalty-Crashwhale | $3.9K | +$85K | 53% of 173 |
| 57284910balanced | $3.0K | +$2.9K | 88% of 25 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
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Questions
Who is betting on "Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?"?
736 wallets hold a position worth $65K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 735 of them. The largest Yes holder is HoneybeeAlliance, with $1.9K on it, $45K lifetime loss over 8 markets (0% won). The largest No holder is 0x8931…a90c, with $24K on it, $29K lifetime profit over 609 markets (95% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 5¢ and No at 96¢, a 96% implied chance of No. $453K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
16% of the money on Yes and 79% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 64 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 64 points. A week ago, No by 64 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.