Who's betting on “Will the Republican Party hold exactly 53 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?”?
Politics · $160K volume · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 4¢ and No at 96¢, a 96% implied chance of No. $160K has been traded on it.
23% of the money on Yes and 98% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 75 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 70 points. A week ago, No by 67 points.
122 wallets hold a position worth $15K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 121 of them. The largest Yes holder is tmoneeey, with $2.1K on it, $13K lifetime loss over 369 markets (81% won). The largest No holder is BreakTheBank, with $7.4K on it, $10M lifetime profit over 609 markets (87% won).
- Smart money share
- 23% ▼ 5 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 71
- Money on it
- $4.4K
- Holders' winrate
- 70%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 98%
- Holders
- 51
- Money on it
- $11K
- Holders' winrate
- 81%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| tmoneeey | $2.1K | -$13K | 81% of 369 |
| Semen-Demon | $658 | -$18K | 47% of 107 |
| 0x1775…72a2 | $295 | - | - |
| HowBoutThemCowboys | $229 | +$74K | 88% of 17 |
| 0xcBdfF20C9ec923cb9fe2572B179C1033304E6a49-1761715849429 | $229 | -$293 | 57% of 28 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| BreakTheBankwhale | $7.4K | +$10M | 87% of 609 |
| BetterFishwhale | $1.5K | +$34K | 60% of 673 |
| iraa3whale | $672 | +$7.3K | 80% of 287 |
| nicoco89whale | $371 | +$121K | 65% of 1,025 |
| Elias.Thornwellwhale | $148 | +$4.5K | 69% of 2,940 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
More markets in Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
- 54$817K vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- 52$622K vol.Yes 5%No 95%Smart money: No
- 55$453K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- ≤47$364K vol.Yes 42%No 59%Smart money: Yes
- 51$248K vol.Yes 9%No 92%Smart money: Yes
- 56$230K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- 57+$155K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- 50$146K vol.Yes 12%No 89%Smart money: Yes
- 48$129K vol.Yes 18%No 83%Smart money: No
- 49$86K vol.Yes 12%No 89%Smart money: Yes
Who's betting on Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? →
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Questions
Who is betting on "Will the Republican Party hold exactly 53 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?"?
122 wallets hold a position worth $15K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 121 of them. The largest Yes holder is tmoneeey, with $2.1K on it, $13K lifetime loss over 369 markets (81% won). The largest No holder is BreakTheBank, with $7.4K on it, $10M lifetime profit over 609 markets (87% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will the Republican Party hold exactly 53 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 4¢ and No at 96¢, a 96% implied chance of No. $160K has been traded on it.
Which side is the smart money on?
23% of the money on Yes and 98% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 75 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 70 points. A week ago, No by 67 points.
When does this market end?
Polymarket has not set an end date for it.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.