Who's betting on “Will the Republican Party hold exactly 54 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?”?
Politics · $817K volume · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 2¢ and No at 98¢, a 98% implied chance of No. $817K has been traded on it.
64% of the money on Yes and 99% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 35 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 30 points. A week ago, No by 28 points.
138 wallets hold a position worth $9.2K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 137 of them. The largest Yes holder is BreakTheBank, with $573 on it, $9.6M lifetime profit over 604 markets (87% won). The largest No holder is ScottyNooo, with $6.0K on it, $891K lifetime profit over 1,533 markets (48% won).
- Smart money share
- 64% ▼ 5 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 99
- Money on it
- $2.0K
- Holders' winrate
- 71%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 99%
- Holders
- 39
- Money on it
- $7.2K
- Holders' winrate
- 51%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| BreakTheBankwhale | $573 | +$9.6M | 87% of 604 |
| Semen-Demon | $311 | -$18K | 47% of 107 |
| 0x1775…72a2 | $257 | - | - |
| HowBoutThemCowboys | $195 | +$74K | 88% of 17 |
| 0xcBdfF20C9ec923cb9fe2572B179C1033304E6a49-1761715849429 | $91 | -$293 | 57% of 28 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| ScottyNooowhale | $6.0K | +$891K | 48% of 1,533 |
| BetterFishwhale | $687 | +$34K | 60% of 673 |
| Elias.Thornwellwhale | $144 | +$4.5K | 69% of 2,940 |
| safrter99 | $98 | +$5 | 100% of 13 |
| Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedwhale | $92 | +$154K | 56% of 13,103 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
More markets in Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
- 52$622K vol.Yes 5%No 95%Smart money: No
- 55$453K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- ≤47$364K vol.Yes 43%No 57%Smart money: Yes
- 51$248K vol.Yes 9%No 92%Smart money: Yes
- 56$230K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- 53$160K vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: No
- 57+$155K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- 50$146K vol.Yes 12%No 89%Smart money: Yes
- 48$129K vol.Yes 18%No 83%Smart money: No
- 49$86K vol.Yes 12%No 89%Smart money: Yes
Who's betting on Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? →
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Questions
Who is betting on "Will the Republican Party hold exactly 54 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?"?
138 wallets hold a position worth $9.2K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 137 of them. The largest Yes holder is BreakTheBank, with $573 on it, $9.6M lifetime profit over 604 markets (87% won). The largest No holder is ScottyNooo, with $6.0K on it, $891K lifetime profit over 1,533 markets (48% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will the Republican Party hold exactly 54 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 2¢ and No at 98¢, a 98% implied chance of No. $817K has been traded on it.
Which side is the smart money on?
64% of the money on Yes and 99% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 35 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 30 points. A week ago, No by 28 points.
When does this market end?
Polymarket has not set an end date for it.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.