Who's betting on “Will the Republican Party hold exactly 52 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?”?
Politics · $622K volume · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 5¢ and No at 95¢, a 95% implied chance of No. $622K has been traded on it.
66% of the money on Yes and 75% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 9 points. A day ago it was split. A week ago, Yes by 12 points.
196 wallets hold a position worth $12K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 195 of them. The largest Yes holder is BreakTheBank, with $2.6K on it, $9.6M lifetime profit over 604 markets (87% won). The largest No holder is HerrieDavis, with $2.2K on it, $328K lifetime profit over 2,442 markets (63% won).
- Smart money share
- 66% ▼ 10 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 123
- Money on it
- $5.6K
- Holders' winrate
- 72%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 75%
- Holders
- 73
- Money on it
- $6.3K
- Holders' winrate
- 65%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| BreakTheBankwhale | $2.6K | +$9.6M | 87% of 604 |
| Semen-Demon | $851 | -$18K | 47% of 107 |
| 0xcBdfF20C9ec923cb9fe2572B179C1033304E6a49-1761715849429 | $548 | -$293 | 57% of 28 |
| 0x1775…72a2 | $325 | - | - |
| Seutervoinenwhale | $263 | +$130K | 82% of 513 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| HerrieDaviswhale | $2.2K | +$328K | 63% of 2,442 |
| BetterFishwhale | $1.7K | +$34K | 60% of 673 |
| 0x6c10…df5c | $1.3K | -$62K | 66% of 1,056 |
| bernardbulletinwhale | $391 | +$189K | 75% of 1,110 |
| Elias.Thornwellwhale | $115 | +$4.5K | 69% of 2,940 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
More markets in Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
- 54$817K vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- 55$453K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- ≤47$364K vol.Yes 43%No 57%Smart money: Yes
- 51$248K vol.Yes 9%No 92%Smart money: Yes
- 56$230K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- 53$160K vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: No
- 57+$155K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- 50$146K vol.Yes 12%No 89%Smart money: Yes
- 48$129K vol.Yes 18%No 83%Smart money: No
- 49$86K vol.Yes 12%No 89%Smart money: Yes
Who's betting on Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? →
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Questions
Who is betting on "Will the Republican Party hold exactly 52 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?"?
196 wallets hold a position worth $12K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 195 of them. The largest Yes holder is BreakTheBank, with $2.6K on it, $9.6M lifetime profit over 604 markets (87% won). The largest No holder is HerrieDavis, with $2.2K on it, $328K lifetime profit over 2,442 markets (63% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will the Republican Party hold exactly 52 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 5¢ and No at 95¢, a 95% implied chance of No. $622K has been traded on it.
Which side is the smart money on?
66% of the money on Yes and 75% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 9 points. A day ago it was split. A week ago, Yes by 12 points.
When does this market end?
Polymarket has not set an end date for it.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.