Who's betting on “Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?”?
Politics · $364K volume · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 43¢ and No at 57¢, a 57% implied chance of No. $364K has been traded on it.
79% of the money on Yes and 52% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 27 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 27 points. A week ago, Yes by 39 points.
351 wallets hold a position worth $156K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 350 of them. The largest Yes holder is RememberAmalek, with $30K on it, $837K lifetime profit over 1,102 markets (73% won). The largest No holder is eNakeVets, with $16K on it, $63K lifetime loss over 1,027 markets (53% won).
- Smart money share
- 79%
- Holders
- 186
- Money on it
- $91K
- Holders' winrate
- 65%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 52%
- Holders
- 165
- Money on it
- $64K
- Holders' winrate
- 64%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| RememberAmalekwhale | $30K | +$837K | 73% of 1,102 |
| realbengvirwhale | $11K | +$47K | 62% of 37 |
| freshsocket | $5.5K | +$0 | - |
| ocpnabalanced | $3.4K | +$24K | 62% of 269 |
| lastminwin | $3.2K | -$10K | 57% of 7 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| eNakeVets | $16K | -$63K | 53% of 1,027 |
| taurusjiang | $8.7K | -$6.2K | 55% of 11 |
| flawfencewhale | $6.7K | +$480K | 75% of 478 |
| Folletinwhale | $4.8K | +$73K | 73% of 670 |
| OkaneKaseguwhale | $3.8K | +$28K | 85% of 200 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
More markets in Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
- 54$817K vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- 52$622K vol.Yes 5%No 95%Smart money: No
- 55$453K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- 51$248K vol.Yes 9%No 92%Smart money: Yes
- 56$230K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- 53$160K vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: No
- 57+$155K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- 50$146K vol.Yes 12%No 89%Smart money: Yes
- 48$129K vol.Yes 18%No 83%Smart money: No
- 49$86K vol.Yes 12%No 89%Smart money: Yes
Who's betting on Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? →
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- Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$51M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
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- Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$45M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$45M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?"?
351 wallets hold a position worth $156K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 350 of them. The largest Yes holder is RememberAmalek, with $30K on it, $837K lifetime profit over 1,102 markets (73% won). The largest No holder is eNakeVets, with $16K on it, $63K lifetime loss over 1,027 markets (53% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 43¢ and No at 57¢, a 57% implied chance of No. $364K has been traded on it.
Which side is the smart money on?
79% of the money on Yes and 52% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 27 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 27 points. A week ago, Yes by 39 points.
When does this market end?
Polymarket has not set an end date for it.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.