Who's betting on “Will the Republican Party hold exactly 51 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?”?
Politics · $248K volume · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 9¢ and No at 92¢, a 92% implied chance of No. $248K has been traded on it.
83% of the money on Yes and 25% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 58 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 67 points. A week ago, Yes by 20 points.
168 wallets hold a position worth $14K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 166 of them. The largest Yes holder is BreakTheBank, with $4.0K on it, $10M lifetime profit over 609 markets (87% won). The largest No holder is macrosteaks, with $1.2K on it, $6.8K lifetime loss over 2,292 markets (65% won).
- Smart money share
- 83% ▼ 6 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 101
- Money on it
- $8.9K
- Holders' winrate
- 75%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 25% ▲ 3 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 67
- Money on it
- $4.8K
- Holders' winrate
- 64%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| BreakTheBankwhale | $4.0K | +$10M | 87% of 609 |
| Seutervoinenwhale | $1.2K | +$130K | 82% of 513 |
| mombilwhale | $640 | +$497K | 63% of 1,035 |
| Semen-Demon | $604 | -$18K | 47% of 107 |
| 0xcBdfF20C9ec923cb9fe2572B179C1033304E6a49-1761715849429 | $496 | -$293 | 57% of 28 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| macrosteaks | $1.2K | -$6.8K | 65% of 2,292 |
| eNakeVets | $915 | -$63K | 53% of 1,027 |
| Tomekyy | $915 | -$9.1K | 76% of 51 |
| BetterFishwhale | $275 | +$34K | 60% of 673 |
| bernardbulletinwhale | $247 | +$189K | 75% of 1,110 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
More markets in Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
- 54$817K vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- 52$622K vol.Yes 5%No 95%Smart money: No
- 55$453K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- ≤47$364K vol.Yes 42%No 59%Smart money: Yes
- 56$230K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- 53$160K vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: No
- 57+$155K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- 50$146K vol.Yes 12%No 89%Smart money: Yes
- 48$129K vol.Yes 18%No 83%Smart money: No
- 49$86K vol.Yes 12%No 89%Smart money: Yes
Who's betting on Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? →
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Questions
Who is betting on "Will the Republican Party hold exactly 51 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?"?
168 wallets hold a position worth $14K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 166 of them. The largest Yes holder is BreakTheBank, with $4.0K on it, $10M lifetime profit over 609 markets (87% won). The largest No holder is macrosteaks, with $1.2K on it, $6.8K lifetime loss over 2,292 markets (65% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will the Republican Party hold exactly 51 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 9¢ and No at 92¢, a 92% implied chance of No. $248K has been traded on it.
Which side is the smart money on?
83% of the money on Yes and 25% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 58 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 67 points. A week ago, Yes by 20 points.
When does this market end?
Polymarket has not set an end date for it.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.