Who's betting on “Iran leadership change by November 30?”?
Politics · $332K volume · Ends December 1, 2026 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 9¢ and No at 92¢, a 92% implied chance of No. $332K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on December 1, 2026.
67% of the money on Yes and 55% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 12 points. A day ago it was split. A week ago, Yes by 47 points.
227 wallets hold a position worth $115K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 225 of them. The largest Yes holder is 0xecA48c68b7cC6CEa3c04b472EA905e567b9FfDa6-1721871609490, with $2.5K on it, $3.2K lifetime loss over 35 markets (29% won). The largest No holder is stupid22, with $21K on it, $98K lifetime loss over 979 markets (94% won).
- Smart money share
- 67% ▲ 17 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 63
- Money on it
- $9.7K
- Holders' winrate
- 48%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 55%
- Holders
- 164
- Money on it
- $105K
- Holders' winrate
- 81%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xecA48c68b7cC6CEa3c04b472EA905e567b9FfDa6-1721871609490 | $2.5K | -$3.2K | 29% of 35 |
| luka112 | $2.3K | +$106 | - |
| classifiedwhale | $906 | +$1.1M | 58% of 1,412 |
| tetrosewhale | $887 | +$210K | 55% of 565 |
| Yoyoyoyo23 | $739 | +$16K | 69% of 13 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
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Questions
Who is betting on "Iran leadership change by November 30?"?
227 wallets hold a position worth $115K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 225 of them. The largest Yes holder is 0xecA48c68b7cC6CEa3c04b472EA905e567b9FfDa6-1721871609490, with $2.5K on it, $3.2K lifetime loss over 35 markets (29% won). The largest No holder is stupid22, with $21K on it, $98K lifetime loss over 979 markets (94% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Iran leadership change by November 30?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 9¢ and No at 92¢, a 92% implied chance of No. $332K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on December 1, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
67% of the money on Yes and 55% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 12 points. A day ago it was split. A week ago, Yes by 47 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on December 1, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.