Who's betting on “Iran leadership change by December 31?”?
Politics · $5.5M volume · Ends January 1, 2027 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 14¢ and No at 86¢, an 86% implied chance of No. $5.5M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
48% of the money on Yes and 61% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 14 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 18 points. A week ago it was split.
1,579 wallets hold a position worth $841K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 1,578 of them. The largest Yes holder is 3.3.3, with $35K on it, $82K lifetime loss over 18 markets (72% won). The largest No holder is stupid22, with $181K on it, $98K lifetime loss over 979 markets (94% won).
1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $290 on Yes; 3 snipers (proven, high-edge traders) hold $1.0K on No; the insider radar has flagged 1 wallet betting $3.9K on Yes.
- Smart money share
- 48% ▲ 4 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 804
- Money on it
- $122K
- Holders' winrate
- 64%
- Snipers
- 1 · $290
- Insider flags
- 1 · $3.9K
- Smart money share
- 61%
- Holders
- 775
- Money on it
- $719K
- Holders' winrate
- 80%
- Snipers
- 3 · $1.0K
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3.3.3 | $35K | -$82K | 72% of 18 |
| Amroseinbalanced | $20K | +$9.0K | 69% of 26 |
| MEPPwhale | $5.0K | +$553K | 62% of 1,070 |
| kenzok | $5.0K | -$13K | 47% of 17 |
| classifiedwhale | $4.2K | +$1.1M | 58% of 1,412 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| stupid22 | $181K | -$98K | 94% of 979 |
| thoodrwhale | $37K | +$91K | 96% of 810 |
| zthunderfurywhale | $27K | +$31K | 67% of 516 |
| Tigerofthehoodwhale | $27K | +$274K | 85% of 246 |
| tsybkawhale | $26K | +$336K | 84% of 957 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
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Questions
Who is betting on "Iran leadership change by December 31?"?
1,579 wallets hold a position worth $841K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 1,578 of them. The largest Yes holder is 3.3.3, with $35K on it, $82K lifetime loss over 18 markets (72% won). The largest No holder is stupid22, with $181K on it, $98K lifetime loss over 979 markets (94% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Iran leadership change by December 31?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 14¢ and No at 86¢, an 86% implied chance of No. $5.5M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
48% of the money on Yes and 61% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 14 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 18 points. A week ago it was split.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Is there insider betting on this market?
1 wallet on Yes ($3.9K) match the pattern of insider bets: a fresh or dormant wallet putting a lot on long odds. A flag is a pattern, not proof.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.