Who's betting on “Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027?”?
Politics · $449K volume · Ends July 1, 2027 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 25¢ and No at 76¢, a 76% implied chance of No. $449K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on July 1, 2027.
64% of the money on Yes and 51% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 13 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 12 points. A week ago, Yes by 13 points.
240 wallets hold a position worth $55K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 240 of them. The largest Yes holder is flopped, with $1.4K on it, $8.9K lifetime loss over 18 markets (94% won). The largest No holder is zhaoyk, with $15K on it, $12K lifetime profit over 26 markets (46% won).
- Smart money share
- 64%
- Holders
- 172
- Money on it
- $13K
- Holders' winrate
- 61%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 51%
- Holders
- 68
- Money on it
- $41K
- Holders' winrate
- 58%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| flopped | $1.4K | -$8.9K | 94% of 18 |
| Dima79balanced | $1.2K | +$795 | 50% of 256 |
| EasyGoingAbalanced | $1.2K | +$19K | 63% of 184 |
| PaddyAlphawhale | $660 | +$55K | 70% of 380 |
| 0xbE0BD69ba8600c9D637F175D8EE9c040fE5c06ac-1782076475654 | $580 | -$2.8K | 25% of 12 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| zhaoyknoise | $15K | +$12K | 46% of 26 |
| AlAhmeda | $8.7K | -$100K | 70% of 1,290 |
| 0xcCa90A5D3C8F2d6663817E3650D6aDbe9aB44C9f-1772395966516 | $4.6K | -$5.5K | 68% of 192 |
| yikaiz | $2.6K | -$2.2K | 33% of 15 |
| givemeusername | $2.0K | -$1.6K | 57% of 164 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
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Questions
Who is betting on "Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027?"?
240 wallets hold a position worth $55K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 240 of them. The largest Yes holder is flopped, with $1.4K on it, $8.9K lifetime loss over 18 markets (94% won). The largest No holder is zhaoyk, with $15K on it, $12K lifetime profit over 26 markets (46% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 25¢ and No at 76¢, a 76% implied chance of No. $449K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on July 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
64% of the money on Yes and 51% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 13 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 12 points. A week ago, Yes by 13 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on July 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.