Who's betting on “Iran leadership change by October 31?”?
Politics · $756K volume · Ends November 1, 2026 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 1¢ and No at 99¢, a 99% implied chance of No. $756K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 1, 2026.
66% of the money on Yes and 49% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 17 points. A day ago it was split. A week ago, Yes by 24 points.
362 wallets hold a position worth $270K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 362 of them. The largest Yes holder is luka112, with $592 on it, $106 lifetime profit. The largest No holder is stupid22, with $101K on it, $98K lifetime loss over 979 markets (94% won).
1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $14 on Yes.
- Smart money share
- 66% ▲ 15 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 108
- Money on it
- $3.6K
- Holders' winrate
- 49%
- Snipers
- 1 · $14
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 49% ▲ 2 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 254
- Money on it
- $266K
- Holders' winrate
- 86%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| luka112 | $592 | +$106 | - |
| Dellabc1whale | $235 | +$445 | 47% of 233 |
| Kawabanga25noise | $233 | +$22K | 25% of 216 |
| Yoyoyoyo23 | $230 | +$16K | 69% of 13 |
| 0x3e59f2C319B3a0D9574FB94FB0045aEa801Db2be-1768770696159 | $191 | -$41K | 57% of 209 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| stupid22 | $101K | -$98K | 94% of 979 |
| thoodrwhale | $32K | +$91K | 96% of 810 |
| classifiedwhale | $27K | +$1.1M | 58% of 1,412 |
| AlAhmeda | $13K | -$100K | 70% of 1,290 |
| TylerTurdenwhale | $11K | +$173K | 89% of 940 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
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Questions
Who is betting on "Iran leadership change by October 31?"?
362 wallets hold a position worth $270K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 362 of them. The largest Yes holder is luka112, with $592 on it, $106 lifetime profit. The largest No holder is stupid22, with $101K on it, $98K lifetime loss over 979 markets (94% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Iran leadership change by October 31?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 1¢ and No at 99¢, a 99% implied chance of No. $756K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 1, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
66% of the money on Yes and 49% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 17 points. A day ago it was split. A week ago, Yes by 24 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 1, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.