Who's betting on “Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?”?
Politics · $476K volume · Ends October 20, 2026 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 2¢ and No at 98¢, a 98% implied chance of No. $476K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on October 20, 2026.
21% of the money on Yes and 90% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 70 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 59 points. A week ago, No by 9 points.
379 wallets hold a position worth $100K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 378 of them. The largest Yes holder is idfinsider0228, with $791 on it, $707 lifetime loss over 153 markets (52% won). The largest No holder is groth, with $10K on it, $145K lifetime profit over 486 markets (77% won).
1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $10K on No.
- Smart money share
- 21% ▼ 8 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 106
- Money on it
- $1.9K
- Holders' winrate
- 53%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 90% ▲ 3 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 273
- Money on it
- $98K
- Holders' winrate
- 78%
- Snipers
- 1 · $10K
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| idfinsider0228 | $791 | -$707 | 52% of 153 |
| 0xcFC40658Dd05c1e1ce7c8b1c2B346BfCC3e2c423-1744120135877 | $178 | +$1.6K | 70% of 10 |
| eloinko10 | $138 | +$0 | - |
| Dog8-024 | $135 | -$210 | - |
| 0x7ea5…99b5 | $112 | +$0 | - |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| grothsniper | $10K | +$145K | 77% of 486 |
| chriszyy3whale | $8.9K | +$51K | 95% of 298 |
| Cryptobahemithbalanced | $8.9K | +$2.7K | 95% of 42 |
| Scalpoorwhale | $7.9K | +$45K | 88% of 49 |
| winnings | $7.6K | +$3.0K | 62% of 13 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
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Questions
Who is betting on "Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?"?
379 wallets hold a position worth $100K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 378 of them. The largest Yes holder is idfinsider0228, with $791 on it, $707 lifetime loss over 153 markets (52% won). The largest No holder is groth, with $10K on it, $145K lifetime profit over 486 markets (77% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 2¢ and No at 98¢, a 98% implied chance of No. $476K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on October 20, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
21% of the money on Yes and 90% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 70 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 59 points. A week ago, No by 9 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on October 20, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.