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Who's betting on “Will Mohsen Araki be head of state in Iran end of 2026?”?

Politics · $325K volume · Ends December 31, 2026 · Updated October 24, 2026

Polymarket prices Yes at 0¢ and No at 100¢, a 100% implied chance of No. $325K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on December 31, 2026.

51% of the money on Yes and 3% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 48 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 48 points. A week ago, Yes by 48 points.

90 wallets hold a position worth $93 in all; Polkyo has a track record for 90 of them. The largest Yes holder is 0x50ea…010f, with $30 on it, $2.1K lifetime loss over 181 markets (27% won). The largest No holder is 0x78b3…6dda, with $4 on it, $67 lifetime loss over 269 markets (56% won).

Yes0%
Smart money leans here
Smart money share
51%
Holders
84
Money on it
$88
Holders' winrate
53%
Snipers
0
Insider flags
0
No100%
Smart money share
3%
Holders
6
Money on it
$4
Holders' winrate
55%
Snipers
0
Insider flags
0

The biggest holders on each side

Yes
TraderPositionLifetime P&LWon
0x50ea…010f$30-$2.1K27% of 181
0x009c…c09d$15+$9100% of 6
Eatpraylovewhale$8+$517K62% of 1,033
planktonXDwhale$7+$131K76% of 5,427
0xwhalesharknoise$3+$5.4K39% of 240
No
TraderPositionLifetime P&LWon
0x78b3…6dda$4-$6756% of 269
northdrawernoise$0+$71K28% of 16,846
neutralwave23$0-$2.9M72% of 26,957
Anon321321noise$0+$18K43% of 403
Tyshawhale$0+$27K46% of 8,347
Every holder, the full history, and alerts when the smart money moves

Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.

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Questions

Who is betting on "Will Mohsen Araki be head of state in Iran end of 2026?"?

90 wallets hold a position worth $93 in all; Polkyo has a track record for 90 of them. The largest Yes holder is 0x50ea…010f, with $30 on it, $2.1K lifetime loss over 181 markets (27% won). The largest No holder is 0x78b3…6dda, with $4 on it, $67 lifetime loss over 269 markets (56% won).

What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Mohsen Araki be head of state in Iran end of 2026?"?

Polymarket prices Yes at 0¢ and No at 100¢, a 100% implied chance of No. $325K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on December 31, 2026.

Which side is the smart money on?

51% of the money on Yes and 3% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 48 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 48 points. A week ago, Yes by 48 points.

When does this market end?

It is set to end on December 31, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.

Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.

Will Mohsen Araki be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Who's betting on Polymarket · Polkyo