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Who's betting on “Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?”?

Politics · $2.3M volume · Ends December 31, 2026 · Updated October 24, 2026

Polymarket prices Yes at 3¢ and No at 97¢, a 97% implied chance of No. $2.3M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on December 31, 2026.

67% of the money on Yes and 98% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 31 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 31 points. A week ago, No by 25 points.

264 wallets hold a position worth $4.0K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 264 of them. The largest Yes holder is Eatpraylove, with $232 on it, $517K lifetime profit over 1,033 markets (62% won). The largest No holder is classified, with $2.0K on it, $1.1M lifetime profit over 1,412 markets (58% won).

Yes3%
Smart money share
67%
Holders
179
Money on it
$1.6K
Holders' winrate
52%
Snipers
0
Insider flags
0
No97%
Smart money leans here
Smart money share
98%
Holders
85
Money on it
$2.4K
Holders' winrate
61%
Snipers
0
Insider flags
0

The biggest holders on each side

Yes
TraderPositionLifetime P&LWon
Eatpraylovewhale$232+$517K62% of 1,033
okwtfokbalanced$178+$72269% of 102
0x9f4c…14ddnoise$156+$53515% of 74
0x1f83…ec5c$142-$1067% of 3
0x1299…6277$131-$3876% of 85
No
TraderPositionLifetime P&LWon
classifiedwhale$2.0K+$1.1M58% of 1,412
AndyFranbalanced$195+$4284% of 222
chx02$36-$3873% of 220
weebbb3balanced$30+$3282% of 207
HTHThtghtr$6+$1.3K100% of 14
Every holder, the full history, and alerts when the smart money moves

Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.

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Questions

Who is betting on "Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?"?

264 wallets hold a position worth $4.0K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 264 of them. The largest Yes holder is Eatpraylove, with $232 on it, $517K lifetime profit over 1,033 markets (62% won). The largest No holder is classified, with $2.0K on it, $1.1M lifetime profit over 1,412 markets (58% won).

What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?"?

Polymarket prices Yes at 3¢ and No at 97¢, a 97% implied chance of No. $2.3M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on December 31, 2026.

Which side is the smart money on?

67% of the money on Yes and 98% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 31 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 31 points. A week ago, No by 25 points.

When does this market end?

It is set to end on December 31, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.

Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.

Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Who's betting on Polymarket · Polkyo