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Who's betting on “Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026?”?

Politics · $1.2M volume · Ends December 31, 2026 · Updated October 24, 2026

Polymarket prices Yes at 5¢ and No at 95¢, a 95% implied chance of No. $1.2M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on December 31, 2026.

57% of the money on Yes and 87% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 30 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 30 points. A week ago, No by 31 points.

404 wallets hold a position worth $8.3K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 403 of them. The largest Yes holder is rustin123, with $543 on it, $465 lifetime profit over 86 markets (26% won). The largest No holder is classified, with $2.4K on it, $1.1M lifetime profit over 1,412 markets (58% won).

Yes5%
Smart money share
57%
Holders
226
Money on it
$2.9K
Holders' winrate
54%
Snipers
0
Insider flags
0
No95%
Smart money leans here
Smart money share
87%
Holders
178
Money on it
$5.3K
Holders' winrate
69%
Snipers
0
Insider flags
0

The biggest holders on each side

Yes
TraderPositionLifetime P&LWon
rustin123noise$543+$46526% of 86
0x6992D56559Dd30b5B5D0F5cA3D5427F9e94e6c1d-1760272837095noise$178+$2.6K45% of 293
Arif668$166-$3.5K53% of 304
0x3e59f2C319B3a0D9574FB94FB0045aEa801Db2be-1768770696159$166-$41K57% of 209
xlefgerxwhale$126+$4.8K84% of 132
No
TraderPositionLifetime P&LWon
classifiedwhale$2.4K+$1.1M58% of 1,412
PaddyAlphawhale$485+$55K70% of 380
AztecaBullbalanced$401+$1.8K93% of 56
tomorrownowwhale$397+$73375% of 117
ooops$191-$5.8K65% of 204
Every holder, the full history, and alerts when the smart money moves

Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.

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Questions

Who is betting on "Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026?"?

404 wallets hold a position worth $8.3K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 403 of them. The largest Yes holder is rustin123, with $543 on it, $465 lifetime profit over 86 markets (26% won). The largest No holder is classified, with $2.4K on it, $1.1M lifetime profit over 1,412 markets (58% won).

What are the Polymarket odds for "Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026?"?

Polymarket prices Yes at 5¢ and No at 95¢, a 95% implied chance of No. $1.2M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on December 31, 2026.

Which side is the smart money on?

57% of the money on Yes and 87% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 30 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 30 points. A week ago, No by 31 points.

When does this market end?

It is set to end on December 31, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.

Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.

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