Who's betting on “Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?”?
Politics · $712K volume · Ends December 31, 2026 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 2¢ and No at 98¢, a 98% implied chance of No. $712K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on December 31, 2026.
49% of the money on Yes and 86% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 37 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 37 points. A week ago, No by 35 points.
536 wallets hold a position worth $59K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 535 of them. The largest Yes holder is 0x7795…9a17, with $464 on it, $44K lifetime loss over 121 markets (30% won). The largest No holder is XueqinJiang, with $5.0K on it, $35K lifetime profit over 204 markets (75% won).
1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $4 on Yes; 2 snipers (proven, high-edge traders) hold $4.5K on No.
- Smart money share
- 49%
- Holders
- 223
- Money on it
- $2.9K
- Holders' winrate
- 50%
- Snipers
- 1 · $4
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 86%
- Holders
- 313
- Money on it
- $56K
- Holders' winrate
- 78%
- Snipers
- 2 · $4.5K
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0x7795…9a17 | $464 | -$44K | 30% of 121 |
| salmanandb | $379 | +$864 | 71% of 7 |
| Bradking | $207 | -$15K | 19% of 43 |
| xlefgerxwhale | $161 | +$4.8K | 84% of 132 |
| rzgtrader | $138 | -$5.2K | 62% of 200 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| XueqinJiangwhale | $5.0K | +$35K | 75% of 204 |
| bearbees2whale | $4.9K | +$34K | 84% of 251 |
| Noooooooopwhale | $4.9K | +$1.8K | 85% of 509 |
| Macks22sniper | $4.5K | +$1.0M | 80% of 117 |
| 57284910balanced | $4.0K | +$2.9K | 88% of 25 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
More markets in Iran leader end of 2026?
- Mojtaba Khamenei$6.9M vol.Yes 85%No 15%Smart money split
- Mohammad Khatami$5.2M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Seyed Hossein Mousavian$3.7M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money split
- Mostafa Pourmohammadi$3.4M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Hassan Shariatmadari$3.2M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Alireza Arafi$2.3M vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- Hassan Khomeini$1.5M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- No Head of State$1.2M vol.Yes 5%No 95%Smart money: No
- Mahmoud Ahmadinejad$1.1M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Masoud Pezeshkian$1.0M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Hassan Rouhani$954K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf$928K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Maryam Rajavi$907K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Ali Motahari$860K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Abbas Araghchi$839K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Ahmad Vahidi$787K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money split
- Sadegh Larijani$590K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Muhammad Mirbaqiri$477K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel$443K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Massoud Rajavi$437K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Saeed Jalili$425K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Ali Asghar Hejazi$393K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani$333K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Mohsen Araki$325K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
Other big politics markets
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$75M vol.Yes 21%No 80%Smart money: No
- Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$55M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$54M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$53M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$51M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$49M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$45M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$45M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?"?
536 wallets hold a position worth $59K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 535 of them. The largest Yes holder is 0x7795…9a17, with $464 on it, $44K lifetime loss over 121 markets (30% won). The largest No holder is XueqinJiang, with $5.0K on it, $35K lifetime profit over 204 markets (75% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 2¢ and No at 98¢, a 98% implied chance of No. $712K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on December 31, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
49% of the money on Yes and 86% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 37 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 37 points. A week ago, No by 35 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on December 31, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.