Who's betting on “Will Russia invade a NATO country by December 31, 2026?”?
Politics · $439K volume · Ends January 1, 2027 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 5¢ and No at 96¢, a 96% implied chance of No. $439K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
25% of the money on Yes and 95% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 70 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 69 points. A week ago, No by 69 points.
309 wallets hold a position worth $257K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 307 of them. The largest Yes holder is vsesoso, with $3.8K on it, $402 lifetime loss over 1 markets (100% won). The largest No holder is kevtp, with $48K on it, $70K lifetime profit over 349 markets (77% won).
- Smart money share
- 25% ▼ 1 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 113
- Money on it
- $12K
- Holders' winrate
- 51%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 95%
- Holders
- 196
- Money on it
- $245K
- Holders' winrate
- 80%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| vsesoso | $3.8K | -$402 | 100% of 1 |
| whysoslow | $2.2K | +$0 | - |
| gatorrwhale | $945 | +$1.1M | 52% of 902 |
| UniversalCarriernoise | $884 | +$1.3K | 52% of 56 |
| cataction | $495 | -$2.3K | 0% of 5 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| kevtpwhale | $48K | +$70K | 77% of 349 |
| goroviwhale | $31K | +$30K | 93% of 373 |
| keribitwhale | $29K | +$108K | 80% of 496 |
| DFKwhale | $28K | +$41K | 81% of 762 |
| 0xE1203cDbA824c2516e3e6b46db7a87b83811283E-1771971814057 | $27K | +$2.3K | 93% of 15 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
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Questions
Who is betting on "Will Russia invade a NATO country by December 31, 2026?"?
309 wallets hold a position worth $257K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 307 of them. The largest Yes holder is vsesoso, with $3.8K on it, $402 lifetime loss over 1 markets (100% won). The largest No holder is kevtp, with $48K on it, $70K lifetime profit over 349 markets (77% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Russia invade a NATO country by December 31, 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 5¢ and No at 96¢, a 96% implied chance of No. $439K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
25% of the money on Yes and 95% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 70 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 69 points. A week ago, No by 69 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.