Who's betting on “US imports Russian diesel by October 31?”?
Politics · $327K volume · Ends November 1, 2026 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 3¢ and No at 97¢, a 97% implied chance of No. $327K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 1, 2026.
40% of the money on Yes and 89% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 49 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 56 points. A week ago, No by 51 points.
357 wallets hold a position worth $80K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 357 of them. The largest Yes holder is 0x955c…990f, with $473 on it, $146K lifetime loss over 580 markets (76% won). The largest No holder is 0x56e7…7c0b, with $23K on it, $48K lifetime profit over 155 markets (70% won).
2 snipers (proven, high-edge traders) hold $3.4K on No.
- Smart money share
- 40% ▲ 9 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 220
- Money on it
- $2.0K
- Holders' winrate
- 57%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 89% ▲ 1 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 137
- Money on it
- $78K
- Holders' winrate
- 68%
- Snipers
- 2 · $3.4K
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0x955c…990f | $473 | -$146K | 76% of 580 |
| Nikrider | $424 | -$7.1K | 0% of 1 |
| Tree.news | $211 | +$453 | 20% of 5 |
| Archeroonnoise | $125 | +$17K | 25% of 312 |
| ArthurGreen | $86 | -$9.7K | 54% of 300 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0x56e7…7c0bwhale | $23K | +$48K | 70% of 155 |
| BigMackyGwhale | $14K | +$74K | 71% of 221 |
| 1nvoker1whale | $5.0K | +$14K | 62% of 1,015 |
| Noahrichards98balanced | $4.6K | +$9.1K | 75% of 40 |
| 💰💰balanced | $3.7K | +$6.5K | 53% of 257 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
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Questions
Who is betting on "US imports Russian diesel by October 31?"?
357 wallets hold a position worth $80K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 357 of them. The largest Yes holder is 0x955c…990f, with $473 on it, $146K lifetime loss over 580 markets (76% won). The largest No holder is 0x56e7…7c0b, with $23K on it, $48K lifetime profit over 155 markets (70% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "US imports Russian diesel by October 31?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 3¢ and No at 97¢, a 97% implied chance of No. $327K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 1, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
40% of the money on Yes and 89% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 49 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 56 points. A week ago, No by 51 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 1, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.