Who's betting on “US imports Russian diesel by December 31?”?
Politics · $45K volume · Ends January 1, 2027 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 86¢ and No at 14¢, an 86% implied chance of Yes. $45K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
79% of the money on Yes and 90% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 11 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 7 points.
122 wallets hold a position worth $16K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 122 of them. The largest Yes holder is Newshound, with $2.5K on it, $67K lifetime profit over 1,043 markets (72% won). The largest No holder is 1nvoker1, with $730 on it, $14K lifetime profit over 1,015 markets (62% won).
- Smart money share
- 79% ▼ 2 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 70
- Money on it
- $14K
- Holders' winrate
- 64%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 90% ▲ 3 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 52
- Money on it
- $2.3K
- Holders' winrate
- 56%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| Newshoundwhale | $2.5K | +$67K | 72% of 1,043 |
| Polocap | $1.0K | -$5.2K | 53% of 238 |
| 0x6bd2671189761274417e66D1F6a834ecdBb695f6-1761995156221balanced | $954 | +$2.8K | 93% of 350 |
| theta-thunbergwhale | $893 | +$63K | 56% of 1,084 |
| Nibiru2whale | $846 | +$322K | 53% of 226 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1nvoker1whale | $730 | +$14K | 62% of 1,015 |
| 0xf27de6607Cbd19be1133619B9807ff63Fb86e6dwhale | $484 | +$33K | 64% of 295 |
| wallet-account-testbalanced | $217 | +$4.7K | 69% of 210 |
| 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495noise | $211 | +$318K | 22% of 11,530 |
| bonalddrunk | $151 | -$11K | 59% of 361 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
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Questions
Who is betting on "US imports Russian diesel by December 31?"?
122 wallets hold a position worth $16K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 122 of them. The largest Yes holder is Newshound, with $2.5K on it, $67K lifetime profit over 1,043 markets (72% won). The largest No holder is 1nvoker1, with $730 on it, $14K lifetime profit over 1,015 markets (62% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "US imports Russian diesel by December 31?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 86¢ and No at 14¢, an 86% implied chance of Yes. $45K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
79% of the money on Yes and 90% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 11 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 7 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.