Who's betting on “Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?”?
Politics · $30M volume · Ends October 5, 2026 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 18¢ and No at 83¢, an 83% implied chance of No. $30M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on October 5, 2026.
35% of the money on Yes and 70% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 34 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 37 points. A week ago, No by 36 points.
1,999 wallets hold a position worth $3.1M in all; Polkyo has a track record for 1,963 of them. The largest Yes holder is Abkhauae, with $175K on it, $0 lifetime profit. The largest No holder is Votei14Voude22, with $237K on it, $715K lifetime profit over 480 markets (80% won).
3 snipers (proven, high-edge traders) hold $4.9K on Yes; 1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $41 on No; the insider radar has flagged 82 wallets betting $1.1M on Yes; the insider radar has flagged 2 wallets betting $7.4K on No.
- Smart money share
- 35% ▲ 2 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 1,000
- Money on it
- $1.5M
- Holders' winrate
- 62%
- Snipers
- 3 · $4.9K
- Insider flags
- 82 · $1.1M
- Smart money share
- 70%
- Holders
- 999
- Money on it
- $1.6M
- Holders' winrate
- 72%
- Snipers
- 1 · $41
- Insider flags
- 2 · $7.4K
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| Abkhauae | $175K | +$0 | - |
| TheReturnOfDarthMaulwhale | $103K | +$1.5M | 60% of 1,014 |
| franciscojr2025 | $60K | -$128 | 0% of 1 |
| flawfencewhale | $53K | +$480K | 75% of 478 |
| fzol | $44K | +$0 | - |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| Votei14Voude22whale | $237K | +$715K | 80% of 480 |
| 65765757whale | $187K | +$256K | 82% of 390 |
| LulaVaiPerderwhale | $132K | +$507K | 79% of 443 |
| MissaoComFlavio | $119K | -$157K | 82% of 358 |
| StudentMoneywhale | $80K | +$4.6K | 69% of 1,128 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
More markets in Brazil Presidential Election
- Flávio Bolsonaro$27M vol.Yes 83%No 17%Smart money: Yes
- Renan Santos$17M vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: No
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- Geraldo Alckmin$9.2M vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: No
- Eduardo Leite$8.0M vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: Yes
- Ronaldo Caiado$7.8M vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: Yes
- Fernando Haddad$7.7M vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: Yes
- Romeu Zema$7.7M vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: Yes
- Jair Bolsonaro$7.6M vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money split
- Camilo Santana$5.6M vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: Yes
- Augusto Cury$5.5M vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money split
- Aldo Rebelo$5.0M vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: Yes
- Tereza Cristina$4.1M vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: Yes
- Pablo Marçal$4.0M vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: No
- Helder Barbalho$2.4M vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: Yes
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Questions
Who is betting on "Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?"?
1,999 wallets hold a position worth $3.1M in all; Polkyo has a track record for 1,963 of them. The largest Yes holder is Abkhauae, with $175K on it, $0 lifetime profit. The largest No holder is Votei14Voude22, with $237K on it, $715K lifetime profit over 480 markets (80% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 18¢ and No at 83¢, an 83% implied chance of No. $30M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on October 5, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
35% of the money on Yes and 70% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 34 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 37 points. A week ago, No by 36 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on October 5, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Is there insider betting on this market?
82 wallets on Yes ($1.1M) and 2 wallets on No ($7.4K) match the pattern of insider bets: a fresh or dormant wallet putting a lot on long odds. A flag is a pattern, not proof.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.