Who's betting on “Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?”?
Politics · $27M volume · Ends October 5, 2026 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 83¢ and No at 17¢, an 83% implied chance of Yes. $27M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on October 5, 2026.
66% of the money on Yes and 26% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 40 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 44 points. A week ago, Yes by 49 points.
1,999 wallets hold a position worth $8.6M in all; Polkyo has a track record for 1,946 of them. The largest Yes holder is Votei14Voude22, with $499K on it, $715K lifetime profit over 480 markets (80% won). The largest No holder is eventalpha26, with $194K on it, $46K lifetime loss.
6 snipers (proven, high-edge traders) hold $64K on Yes; 3 snipers (proven, high-edge traders) hold $35 on No; the insider radar has flagged 8 wallets betting $39K on Yes; the insider radar has flagged 25 wallets betting $498K on No.
- Smart money share
- 66% ▼ 1 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 1,000
- Money on it
- $8.0M
- Holders' winrate
- 72%
- Snipers
- 6 · $64K
- Insider flags
- 8 · $39K
- Smart money share
- 26% ▲ 3 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 999
- Money on it
- $540K
- Holders' winrate
- 62%
- Snipers
- 3 · $35
- Insider flags
- 25 · $498K
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| Votei14Voude22whale | $499K | +$715K | 80% of 480 |
| MissaoComFlavio | $367K | -$157K | 82% of 358 |
| Jjjh77660whale | $319K | +$32K | 55% of 49 |
| Raiored | $250K | +$0 | - |
| 65765757whale | $206K | +$256K | 82% of 390 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| eventalpha26 | $194K | -$46K | - |
| Abkhauae | $47K | +$0 | - |
| gsandre | $37K | +$0 | - |
| dromedaryywhale | $18K | +$450K | 66% of 47 |
| tsihkodiiveswhale | $14K | +$26K | 83% of 476 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
More markets in Brazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva$30M vol.Yes 18%No 83%Smart money: No
- Renan Santos$17M vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: No
- Tarcisio de Freitas$15M vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money split
- Ratinho Júnior$11M vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: Yes
- Eduardo Bolsonaro$10M vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: Yes
- Michelle Bolsonaro$10M vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: Yes
- Geraldo Alckmin$9.2M vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: No
- Eduardo Leite$8.0M vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: Yes
- Ronaldo Caiado$7.8M vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: Yes
- Fernando Haddad$7.7M vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: Yes
- Romeu Zema$7.7M vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: Yes
- Jair Bolsonaro$7.6M vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money split
- Camilo Santana$5.6M vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: Yes
- Augusto Cury$5.5M vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money split
- Aldo Rebelo$5.0M vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: Yes
- Tereza Cristina$4.1M vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: Yes
- Pablo Marçal$4.0M vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: No
- Helder Barbalho$2.4M vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: Yes
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Questions
Who is betting on "Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?"?
1,999 wallets hold a position worth $8.6M in all; Polkyo has a track record for 1,946 of them. The largest Yes holder is Votei14Voude22, with $499K on it, $715K lifetime profit over 480 markets (80% won). The largest No holder is eventalpha26, with $194K on it, $46K lifetime loss.
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 83¢ and No at 17¢, an 83% implied chance of Yes. $27M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on October 5, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
66% of the money on Yes and 26% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 40 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 44 points. A week ago, Yes by 49 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on October 5, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Is there insider betting on this market?
8 wallets on Yes ($39K) and 25 wallets on No ($498K) match the pattern of insider bets: a fresh or dormant wallet putting a lot on long odds. A flag is a pattern, not proof.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.