Who's betting on “Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?”?
Politics · $10M volume · Closed · Updated October 5, 2026
This market closed on October 5, 2026 and resolved No. $10M has been traded on it.
76% of the money on Yes and 46% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 31 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 27 points. A week ago, Yes by 31 points.
897 wallets hold a position worth $11K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 897 of them. The largest Yes holder is timetowander, with $326 on it, $664K lifetime profit over 468 markets (60% won). The largest No holder is courtneykennedy, with $67 on it, $11 lifetime loss over 63 markets (11% won).
3 snipers (proven, high-edge traders) hold $3 on No.
- Smart money share
- 76% ▲ 3 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 554
- Money on it
- $2.6K
- Holders' winrate
- 52%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 46%
- Holders
- 343
- Money on it
- $7.9K
- Holders' winrate
- 78%
- Snipers
- 3 · $3
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| timetowanderwhale | $326 | +$664K | 60% of 468 |
| Yelowyolonoise | $283 | +$5.3K | 46% of 200 |
| 0xC03cE4d8Af842Ca6251Ac57228B3Ffb166ed50Awhale | $223 | +$1.2M | 57% of 972 |
| CoffeeDespiserwhale | $151 | +$51K | 47% of 1,145 |
| Eduglower | $136 | +$7.6K | 33% of 18 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| courtneykennedy | $67 | -$11 | 11% of 63 |
| bcnds | $52 | -$99 | 46% of 37 |
| EpicSamurai736 | $45 | -$104 | 4% of 231 |
| alisi-039balanced | $40 | +$0 | 59% of 94 |
| tt776 | $34 | -$5 | 64% of 33 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
More markets in Brazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva$30M vol.Yes 17%No 84%Smart money: No
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- Fernando Haddad$7.7M vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: Yes
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- Jair Bolsonaro$7.6M vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money split
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- Augusto Cury$5.5M vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money split
- Aldo Rebelo$5.0M vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: Yes
- Tereza Cristina$4.1M vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: Yes
- Pablo Marçal$4.0M vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: No
- Helder Barbalho$2.4M vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: Yes
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Questions
Who is betting on "Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?"?
897 wallets hold a position worth $11K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 897 of them. The largest Yes holder is timetowander, with $326 on it, $664K lifetime profit over 468 markets (60% won). The largest No holder is courtneykennedy, with $67 on it, $11 lifetime loss over 63 markets (11% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?"?
This market closed on October 5, 2026 and resolved No. $10M has been traded on it.
Which side is the smart money on?
76% of the money on Yes and 46% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 31 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 27 points. A week ago, Yes by 31 points.
When does this market end?
This market closed on October 5, 2026 and resolved No. $10M has been traded on it.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.