Who's betting on “Will Iran Reconstruction Funding be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?”?
Politics · $342K volume · Ends January 1, 2027 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 9¢ and No at 92¢, a 92% implied chance of No. $342K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
83% of the money on Yes and 89% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 6 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 7 points. A week ago, Yes by 10 points.
194 wallets hold a position worth $27K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 194 of them. The largest Yes holder is HuntersMethDealer, with $649 on it, $31K lifetime profit over 204 markets (78% won). The largest No holder is 0xC3Db6a07351313cc684759Dee1722D2bB1e90F98-1768247047455, with $5.1K on it, $98K lifetime profit over 409 markets (42% won).
- Smart money share
- 83%
- Holders
- 91
- Money on it
- $2.3K
- Holders' winrate
- 66%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 89%
- Holders
- 103
- Money on it
- $25K
- Holders' winrate
- 62%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| HuntersMethDealerwhale | $649 | +$31K | 78% of 204 |
| 0xFc2F4f50ce2F6045d35558A5E2D8d4b2aC6610c7-1769097007451whale | $510 | +$194K | 66% of 614 |
| Mr.Kirkwhale | $224 | +$7.7K | 49% of 1,156 |
| hormuz-tracker | $170 | +$12 | 50% of 2 |
| HerrieDaviswhale | $51 | +$328K | 63% of 2,442 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xC3Db6a07351313cc684759Dee1722D2bB1e90F98-1768247047455noise | $5.1K | +$98K | 42% of 409 |
| Valen9whale | $4.6K | +$233K | 62% of 895 |
| maritime6307noise | $3.2K | +$873 | 40% of 356 |
| Lasting-Dessertwhale | $2.3K | +$18K | 97% of 710 |
| GollumGekkowhale | $1.1K | +$286K | 73% of 1,154 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
More markets in What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?
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Questions
Who is betting on "Will Iran Reconstruction Funding be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?"?
194 wallets hold a position worth $27K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 194 of them. The largest Yes holder is HuntersMethDealer, with $649 on it, $31K lifetime profit over 204 markets (78% won). The largest No holder is 0xC3Db6a07351313cc684759Dee1722D2bB1e90F98-1768247047455, with $5.1K on it, $98K lifetime profit over 409 markets (42% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Iran Reconstruction Funding be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 9¢ and No at 92¢, a 92% implied chance of No. $342K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
83% of the money on Yes and 89% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 6 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 7 points. A week ago, Yes by 10 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.