Who's betting on “Will a 1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?”?
Politics · $188K volume · Ends January 1, 2027 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 11¢ and No at 90¢, a 90% implied chance of No. $188K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
93% of the money on Yes and 65% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 28 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 28 points. A week ago, Yes by 40 points.
101 wallets hold a position worth $35K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 101 of them. The largest Yes holder is betwick, with $1.7K on it, $636K lifetime profit over 767 markets (56% won). The largest No holder is Valen9, with $12K on it, $233K lifetime profit over 895 markets (62% won).
- Smart money share
- 93%
- Holders
- 49
- Money on it
- $3.7K
- Holders' winrate
- 59%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 65%
- Holders
- 52
- Money on it
- $31K
- Holders' winrate
- 60%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| betwickwhale | $1.7K | +$636K | 56% of 767 |
| denizzwhale | $780 | +$2.3M | 66% of 1,006 |
| PaddyAlphawhale | $319 | +$55K | 70% of 380 |
| apple-piwhale | $263 | +$19K | 65% of 200 |
| 0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758 | $109 | -$7.0K | 50% of 604 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valen9whale | $12K | +$233K | 62% of 895 |
| anoin123 | $8.6K | -$4.9M | 60% of 1,429 |
| maritime6307noise | $2.7K | +$873 | 40% of 356 |
| AlAhmeda | $2.0K | -$100K | 70% of 1,290 |
| 0xFc2F4f50ce2F6045d35558A5E2D8d4b2aC6610c7-1769097007451whale | $1.2K | +$193K | 66% of 614 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
More markets in What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?
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- Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year)$236K vol.Yes 14%No 86%Smart money: Yes
- Dilution of Iran's Uranium$203K vol.Yes 12%No 88%Smart money: No
- Enriched Uranium Surrender$101K vol.Yes 9%No 92%Smart money: No
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Questions
Who is betting on "Will a 1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?"?
101 wallets hold a position worth $35K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 101 of them. The largest Yes holder is betwick, with $1.7K on it, $636K lifetime profit over 767 markets (56% won). The largest No holder is Valen9, with $12K on it, $233K lifetime profit over 895 markets (62% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will a 1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 11¢ and No at 90¢, a 90% implied chance of No. $188K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
93% of the money on Yes and 65% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 28 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 28 points. A week ago, Yes by 40 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.