Who's betting on “Will a US-Iran deal in 2026 include Surrender of Iranian Enriched Uranium?”?
Politics · $101K volume · Ends January 1, 2027 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 9¢ and No at 92¢, a 92% implied chance of No. $101K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
85% of the money on Yes and 94% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 9 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 9 points. A week ago, No by 38 points.
79 wallets hold a position worth $14K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 79 of them. The largest Yes holder is 0xFc2F4f50ce2F6045d35558A5E2D8d4b2aC6610c7-1769097007451, with $595 on it, $193K lifetime profit over 614 markets (66% won). The largest No holder is dontshowmyname, with $3.1K on it, $42K lifetime profit over 222 markets (83% won).
- Smart money share
- 85%
- Holders
- 41
- Money on it
- $1.2K
- Holders' winrate
- 56%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 94%
- Holders
- 38
- Money on it
- $13K
- Holders' winrate
- 66%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xFc2F4f50ce2F6045d35558A5E2D8d4b2aC6610c7-1769097007451whale | $595 | +$193K | 66% of 614 |
| PaddyAlphawhale | $98 | +$55K | 70% of 380 |
| Xyzeric | $88 | -$717 | 42% of 203 |
| Peryperynoise | $81 | +$43K | 30% of 413 |
| 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495noise | $77 | +$318K | 22% of 11,530 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| dontshowmynamewhale | $3.1K | +$42K | 83% of 222 |
| peterfromfamilyguywhale | $3.0K | +$47K | 56% of 303 |
| GollumGekkowhale | $2.5K | +$281K | 73% of 1,157 |
| DooBieZwhale | $2.3K | +$8.7K | 54% of 1,098 |
| Tenebrus7whale | $421 | +$155K | 66% of 1,516 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
More markets in What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?
- Iran Reconstruction Funding$342K vol.Yes 9%No 92%Smart money: No
- ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year)$272K vol.Yes 14%No 87%Smart money: No
- Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year)$236K vol.Yes 14%No 86%Smart money: Yes
- Dilution of Iran's Uranium$203K vol.Yes 12%No 88%Smart money: No
- 1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium$188K vol.Yes 11%No 90%Smart money: Yes
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Questions
Who is betting on "Will a US-Iran deal in 2026 include Surrender of Iranian Enriched Uranium?"?
79 wallets hold a position worth $14K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 79 of them. The largest Yes holder is 0xFc2F4f50ce2F6045d35558A5E2D8d4b2aC6610c7-1769097007451, with $595 on it, $193K lifetime profit over 614 markets (66% won). The largest No holder is dontshowmyname, with $3.1K on it, $42K lifetime profit over 222 markets (83% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will a US-Iran deal in 2026 include Surrender of Iranian Enriched Uranium?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 9¢ and No at 92¢, a 92% implied chance of No. $101K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
85% of the money on Yes and 94% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 9 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 9 points. A week ago, No by 38 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.