Who's betting on “Will Dilution of Iranian Uranium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?”?
Politics · $203K volume · Ends January 1, 2027 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 12¢ and No at 88¢, an 88% implied chance of No. $203K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
64% of the money on Yes and 88% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 24 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 24 points. A week ago, No by 32 points.
153 wallets hold a position worth $23K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 153 of them. The largest Yes holder is Warren-Buffett, with $637 on it, $128K lifetime profit over 1,049 markets (68% won). The largest No holder is paddaa, with $4.8K on it, $283K lifetime profit over 1,436 markets (58% won).
- Smart money share
- 64%
- Holders
- 81
- Money on it
- $2.8K
- Holders' winrate
- 66%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 88%
- Holders
- 72
- Money on it
- $20K
- Holders' winrate
- 58%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| Warren-Buffettwhale | $637 | +$128K | 68% of 1,049 |
| Smart-bettor7 | $539 | -$3.7K | 82% of 209 |
| denizzwhale | $457 | +$2.3M | 66% of 1,006 |
| Outsid3rTradingwhale | $211 | +$52K | 65% of 1,159 |
| Haradwaith | $200 | -$334K | 50% of 45,650 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| paddaawhale | $4.8K | +$283K | 58% of 1,436 |
| 0xFc2F4f50ce2F6045d35558A5E2D8d4b2aC6610c7-1769097007451whale | $4.4K | +$193K | 66% of 614 |
| ArmageddonRewardsBillywhale | $2.6K | +$306K | 44% of 3,734 |
| peterfromfamilyguywhale | $1.8K | +$47K | 56% of 303 |
| hopedieslastwhale | $1.8K | +$260K | 61% of 233 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
More markets in What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?
- Iran Reconstruction Funding$342K vol.Yes 9%No 92%Smart money: No
- ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year)$272K vol.Yes 13%No 87%Smart money: No
- Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year)$236K vol.Yes 14%No 86%Smart money: Yes
- 1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium$188K vol.Yes 11%No 90%Smart money: Yes
- Enriched Uranium Surrender$101K vol.Yes 9%No 92%Smart money: No
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Questions
Who is betting on "Will Dilution of Iranian Uranium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?"?
153 wallets hold a position worth $23K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 153 of them. The largest Yes holder is Warren-Buffett, with $637 on it, $128K lifetime profit over 1,049 markets (68% won). The largest No holder is paddaa, with $4.8K on it, $283K lifetime profit over 1,436 markets (58% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Dilution of Iranian Uranium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 12¢ and No at 88¢, an 88% implied chance of No. $203K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
64% of the money on Yes and 88% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 24 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 24 points. A week ago, No by 32 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.