Who's betting on “Will a ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?”?
Politics · $272K volume · Ends January 1, 2027 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 13¢ and No at 87¢, an 87% implied chance of No. $272K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
87% of the money on Yes and 93% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 6 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 5 points. A week ago, No by 7 points.
169 wallets hold a position worth $20K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 169 of them. The largest Yes holder is Warren-Buffett, with $1.1K on it, $128K lifetime profit over 1,049 markets (68% won). The largest No holder is ArmageddonRewardsBilly, with $4.5K on it, $306K lifetime profit over 3,734 markets (44% won).
- Smart money share
- 87%
- Holders
- 81
- Money on it
- $2.5K
- Holders' winrate
- 62%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 93%
- Holders
- 88
- Money on it
- $17K
- Holders' winrate
- 58%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| Warren-Buffettwhale | $1.1K | +$128K | 68% of 1,049 |
| denizzwhale | $470 | +$2.3M | 66% of 1,006 |
| troimwhale | $104 | +$81K | 66% of 791 |
| Dr.PNL | $78 | -$476K | 30% of 13,845 |
| Gr4pefruit7000whale | $74 | +$44K | 56% of 419 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| ArmageddonRewardsBillywhale | $4.5K | +$306K | 44% of 3,734 |
| 0xFc2F4f50ce2F6045d35558A5E2D8d4b2aC6610c7-1769097007451whale | $3.1K | +$193K | 66% of 614 |
| hopedieslastwhale | $1.5K | +$260K | 61% of 233 |
| DooBieZwhale | $1.3K | +$8.7K | 54% of 1,098 |
| Tenebrus7whale | $906 | +$155K | 66% of 1,516 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
More markets in What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?
- Iran Reconstruction Funding$342K vol.Yes 9%No 92%Smart money: No
- Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year)$236K vol.Yes 14%No 86%Smart money: Yes
- Dilution of Iran's Uranium$203K vol.Yes 12%No 88%Smart money: No
- 1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium$188K vol.Yes 11%No 90%Smart money: Yes
- Enriched Uranium Surrender$101K vol.Yes 9%No 92%Smart money: No
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Questions
Who is betting on "Will a ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?"?
169 wallets hold a position worth $20K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 169 of them. The largest Yes holder is Warren-Buffett, with $1.1K on it, $128K lifetime profit over 1,049 markets (68% won). The largest No holder is ArmageddonRewardsBilly, with $4.5K on it, $306K lifetime profit over 3,734 markets (44% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will a ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 13¢ and No at 87¢, an 87% implied chance of No. $272K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
87% of the money on Yes and 93% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 6 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 5 points. A week ago, No by 7 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.