Who's betting on “Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Democrats win the Senate?”?
Politics · $454K volume · Ends November 4, 2026 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 7¢ and No at 94¢, a 94% implied chance of No. $454K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.
95% of the money on Yes and 94% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it was split. A week ago, Yes by 7 points.
117 wallets hold a position worth $61K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 117 of them. The largest Yes holder is classified, with $3.4K on it, $1.1M lifetime profit over 1,412 markets (58% won). The largest No holder is timmythewhale, with $47K on it, $127K lifetime profit over 28 markets (82% won).
- Smart money share
- 95%
- Holders
- 77
- Money on it
- $7.4K
- Holders' winrate
- 56%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 94%
- Holders
- 40
- Money on it
- $53K
- Holders' winrate
- 80%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| classifiedwhale | $3.4K | +$1.1M | 58% of 1,412 |
| betwickwhale | $971 | +$636K | 56% of 767 |
| piepedwhale | $796 | +$3.2K | 57% of 178 |
| SaylorMoonwhale | $325 | +$488K | 52% of 1,079 |
| ScottyNooowhale | $321 | +$891K | 48% of 1,533 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| timmythewhalewhale | $47K | +$127K | 82% of 28 |
| BunCaCham | $2.1K | -$167K | 84% of 438 |
| ArmageddonRewardsBillywhale | $1.9K | +$306K | 44% of 3,734 |
| Tenebrus7whale | $1.3K | +$155K | 66% of 1,516 |
| als255 | $748 | -$2.0K | 46% of 300 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
More markets in Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement before the midterms?
- No Hormuz Agreement$714K vol.Yes 91%No 9%Smart money: No
- Hormuz Agreement; R Senate$358K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
Who's betting on Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement before the midterms? →
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Questions
Who is betting on "Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Democrats win the Senate?"?
117 wallets hold a position worth $61K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 117 of them. The largest Yes holder is classified, with $3.4K on it, $1.1M lifetime profit over 1,412 markets (58% won). The largest No holder is timmythewhale, with $47K on it, $127K lifetime profit over 28 markets (82% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Democrats win the Senate?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 7¢ and No at 94¢, a 94% implied chance of No. $454K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
95% of the money on Yes and 94% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it was split. A week ago, Yes by 7 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 4, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.