Who's betting on “Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Republicans win the Senate?”?
Politics · $355K volume · Ends November 4, 2026 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 2¢ and No at 98¢, a 98% implied chance of No. $355K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.
83% of the money on Yes and 99% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 16 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 15 points. A week ago, Yes by 6 points.
124 wallets hold a position worth $60K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 124 of them. The largest Yes holder is ULYSSES18, with $801 on it, $9.9K lifetime profit over 218 markets (56% won). The largest No holder is timmythewhale, with $49K on it, $127K lifetime profit over 28 markets (82% won).
1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $492 on No.
- Smart money share
- 83%
- Holders
- 61
- Money on it
- $1.9K
- Holders' winrate
- 56%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 99% ▲ 1 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 63
- Money on it
- $58K
- Holders' winrate
- 79%
- Snipers
- 1 · $492
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| ULYSSES18whale | $801 | +$9.9K | 56% of 218 |
| prytaneis | $228 | -$2.7K | 0% of 1 |
| piepedwhale | $218 | +$3.2K | 57% of 178 |
| 0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05whale | $121 | +$135K | 54% of 517 |
| Lolakiswhale | $73 | +$88K | 66% of 1,456 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| timmythewhalewhale | $49K | +$127K | 82% of 28 |
| classifiedwhale | $3.6K | +$1.1M | 58% of 1,412 |
| ArmageddonRewardsBillywhale | $2.0K | +$306K | 44% of 3,734 |
| DerDonwhale | $1.1K | +$97K | 55% of 1,174 |
| tl200balanced | $984 | +$577 | 100% of 42 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
More markets in Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement before the midterms?
- No Hormuz Agreement$709K vol.Yes 90%No 10%Smart money: No
- Hormuz Agreement; D Senate$451K vol.Yes 7%No 93%Smart money split
Who's betting on Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement before the midterms? →
Other big politics markets
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$75M vol.Yes 19%No 81%Smart money: No
- Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$55M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$54M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$53M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$51M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$49M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$45M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$45M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Republicans win the Senate?"?
124 wallets hold a position worth $60K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 124 of them. The largest Yes holder is ULYSSES18, with $801 on it, $9.9K lifetime profit over 218 markets (56% won). The largest No holder is timmythewhale, with $49K on it, $127K lifetime profit over 28 markets (82% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Republicans win the Senate?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 2¢ and No at 98¢, a 98% implied chance of No. $355K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
83% of the money on Yes and 99% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 16 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 15 points. A week ago, Yes by 6 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 4, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.