Who's betting on “Will there be no Hormuz agreement?”?
Politics · $702K volume · Ends November 4, 2026 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 94¢ and No at 6¢, a 94% implied chance of Yes. $702K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.
69% of the money on Yes and 97% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 27 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 25 points. A week ago, No by 31 points.
196 wallets hold a position worth $198K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 195 of them. The largest Yes holder is V1nch0u, with $32K on it, $12K lifetime loss over 1,559 markets (97% won). The largest No holder is betwick, with $7.4K on it, $636K lifetime profit over 767 markets (56% won).
- Smart money share
- 69% ▼ 2 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 122
- Money on it
- $189K
- Holders' winrate
- 65%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 97%
- Holders
- 74
- Money on it
- $8.8K
- Holders' winrate
- 56%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| V1nch0u | $32K | -$12K | 97% of 1,559 |
| ULYSSES18whale | $25K | +$9.9K | 56% of 218 |
| eCashwhale | $18K | +$273K | 70% of 652 |
| classifiedwhale | $17K | +$1.1M | 58% of 1,412 |
| MisTKywhale | $14K | +$324K | 62% of 1,325 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| betwickwhale | $7.4K | +$636K | 56% of 767 |
| ScottyNooowhale | $238 | +$891K | 48% of 1,533 |
| LiquidatedDegenwhale | $210 | +$93K | 74% of 1,127 |
| ponydsbnoise | $206 | +$54 | 50% of 46 |
| rewardbotswhale | $126 | +$75K | 57% of 344 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
More markets in Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement before the midterms?
- Hormuz Agreement; D Senate$450K vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money split
- Hormuz Agreement; R Senate$351K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
Who's betting on Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement before the midterms? →
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Questions
Who is betting on "Will there be no Hormuz agreement?"?
196 wallets hold a position worth $198K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 195 of them. The largest Yes holder is V1nch0u, with $32K on it, $12K lifetime loss over 1,559 markets (97% won). The largest No holder is betwick, with $7.4K on it, $636K lifetime profit over 767 markets (56% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will there be no Hormuz agreement?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 94¢ and No at 6¢, a 94% implied chance of Yes. $702K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
69% of the money on Yes and 97% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 27 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 25 points. A week ago, No by 31 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 4, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.