Who's betting on “Will Strait of Hormuz traffic not return to normal in 2026?”?
Politics · $400K volume · Ends February 1, 2027 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 89¢ and No at 12¢, an 89% implied chance of Yes. $400K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on February 1, 2027.
21% of the money on Yes and 87% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 66 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 65 points. A week ago, No by 71 points.
159 wallets hold a position worth $21K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 159 of them. The largest Yes holder is anoin123, with $12K on it, $4.9M lifetime loss over 1,429 markets (60% won). The largest No holder is 0x6bd2671189761274417e66D1F6a834ecdBb695f6-1761995156221, with $597 on it, $2.8K lifetime profit over 350 markets (93% won).
1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $56 on No.
- Smart money share
- 21%
- Holders
- 91
- Money on it
- $20K
- Holders' winrate
- 65%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 87%
- Holders
- 68
- Money on it
- $1.3K
- Holders' winrate
- 73%
- Snipers
- 1 · $56
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| anoin123 | $12K | -$4.9M | 60% of 1,429 |
| Maru.lucky.nala.lenu | $1.1K | -$1.0K | 61% of 244 |
| jacobpoles | $935 | +$260 | 100% of 6 |
| 080526 | $760 | +$527 | 89% of 9 |
| RdogTest | $525 | +$1.3K | 92% of 13 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0x6bd2671189761274417e66D1F6a834ecdBb695f6-1761995156221balanced | $597 | +$2.8K | 93% of 350 |
| Fridaynoise | $99 | +$42K | 29% of 295 |
| 0x24321322b33abD6850aC01b7EDE4211balanced | $81 | +$6.4K | 63% of 207 |
| ASERLIWOUGH | $59 | +$36 | 100% of 1 |
| Outsmartersniper | $56 | +$75K | 76% of 148 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
More markets in Which month will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal?
- October$28K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- December$26K vol.Yes 8%No 92%Smart money: No
- November$13K vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: No
- August$54K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: Yes
- September$23K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: No
Who's betting on Which month will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal? →
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Questions
Who is betting on "Will Strait of Hormuz traffic not return to normal in 2026?"?
159 wallets hold a position worth $21K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 159 of them. The largest Yes holder is anoin123, with $12K on it, $4.9M lifetime loss over 1,429 markets (60% won). The largest No holder is 0x6bd2671189761274417e66D1F6a834ecdBb695f6-1761995156221, with $597 on it, $2.8K lifetime profit over 350 markets (93% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Strait of Hormuz traffic not return to normal in 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 89¢ and No at 12¢, an 89% implied chance of Yes. $400K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on February 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
21% of the money on Yes and 87% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 66 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 65 points. A week ago, No by 71 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on February 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.