Who's betting on “Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?”?
Politics · $483K volume · Ends October 31, 2026 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 5¢ and No at 95¢, a 95% implied chance of No. $483K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on October 31, 2026.
45% of the money on Yes and 43% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it was split. A week ago, No by 14 points.
410 wallets hold a position worth $112K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 408 of them. The largest Yes holder is gambler13, with $2.5K on it, $18K lifetime loss over 205 markets (45% won). The largest No holder is RewardsMafia, with $16K on it, $82K lifetime loss over 214 markets (70% won).
2 snipers (proven, high-edge traders) hold $362 on Yes.
- Smart money share
- 45%
- Holders
- 153
- Money on it
- $5.2K
- Holders' winrate
- 52%
- Snipers
- 2 · $362
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 43% ▲ 1 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 257
- Money on it
- $107K
- Holders' winrate
- 67%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| gambler13 | $2.5K | -$18K | 45% of 205 |
| 0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05whale | $376 | +$135K | 54% of 517 |
| Outsmartersniper | $339 | +$75K | 76% of 148 |
| BigMackyGwhale | $217 | +$74K | 71% of 221 |
| 0x2DF77e862aF88a9cC3Dbb88707B604a85884d71b-1780411072935 | $200 | +$770 | 100% of 1 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| RewardsMafia | $16K | -$82K | 70% of 214 |
| 0x5B07C21b2D9B3E8236C4efd7c9d72Fc04ca2de95-1764188581236 | $13K | -$7.3K | 74% of 234 |
| tr1000 | $10K | -$1.5K | 43% of 1,043 |
| brownewhale | $9.6K | +$54K | 76% of 327 |
| nukecoin- | $5.5K | -$4.5K | 65% of 86 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
More markets in Russia x Ukraine peace talks by...?
Other big politics markets
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$75M vol.Yes 19%No 81%Smart money: No
- Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$55M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$54M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$53M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$51M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$49M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$45M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$45M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?"?
410 wallets hold a position worth $112K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 408 of them. The largest Yes holder is gambler13, with $2.5K on it, $18K lifetime loss over 205 markets (45% won). The largest No holder is RewardsMafia, with $16K on it, $82K lifetime loss over 214 markets (70% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 5¢ and No at 95¢, a 95% implied chance of No. $483K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on October 31, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
45% of the money on Yes and 43% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it was split. A week ago, No by 14 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on October 31, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.