Who's betting on “Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?”?
Politics · $488K volume · Ends November 30, 2026 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 70¢ and No at 30¢, a 70% implied chance of Yes. $488K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 30, 2026.
52% of the money on Yes and 52% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it was split. A week ago, Yes by 41 points.
345 wallets hold a position worth $89K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 341 of them. The largest Yes holder is gambler13, with $8.5K on it, $18K lifetime loss over 205 markets (45% won). The largest No holder is guagua11, with $6.4K on it, $1.3K lifetime profit over 18 markets (39% won).
1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $3.9K on Yes.
- Smart money share
- 52%
- Holders
- 123
- Money on it
- $62K
- Holders' winrate
- 49%
- Snipers
- 1 · $3.9K
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 52% ▲ 1 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 222
- Money on it
- $27K
- Holders' winrate
- 49%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| gambler13 | $8.5K | -$18K | 45% of 205 |
| baixia | $7.9K | +$2.1K | 60% of 15 |
| bei1 | $7.3K | -$790 | 31% of 13 |
| shapaozi1 | $7.2K | +$541 | 45% of 11 |
| tomo1 | $6.2K | -$1.5K | 30% of 10 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| guagua11 | $6.4K | +$1.3K | 39% of 18 |
| puer | $5.9K | -$2.5K | 33% of 18 |
| anoin123 | $3.0K | -$4.9M | 60% of 1,429 |
| 0xf27de6607Cbd19be1133619B9807ff63Fb86e6dwhale | $1.5K | +$33K | 64% of 295 |
| paddaawhale | $606 | +$283K | 58% of 1,436 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
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Questions
Who is betting on "Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?"?
345 wallets hold a position worth $89K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 341 of them. The largest Yes holder is gambler13, with $8.5K on it, $18K lifetime loss over 205 markets (45% won). The largest No holder is guagua11, with $6.4K on it, $1.3K lifetime profit over 18 markets (39% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 70¢ and No at 30¢, a 70% implied chance of Yes. $488K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 30, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
52% of the money on Yes and 52% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it was split. A week ago, Yes by 41 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 30, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.