Who's betting on “Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?”?
Politics · $476K volume · Ends January 1, 2027 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 81¢ and No at 20¢, an 81% implied chance of Yes. $476K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
76% of the money on Yes and 59% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 16 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 9 points. A week ago it was split.
439 wallets hold a position worth $61K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 439 of them. The largest Yes holder is trx1, with $5.3K on it, $5.7K lifetime profit over 464 markets (68% won). The largest No holder is 1nvoker1, with $945 on it, $14K lifetime profit over 1,015 markets (62% won).
1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $4.9K on Yes.
- Smart money share
- 76% ▲ 5 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 183
- Money on it
- $50K
- Holders' winrate
- 64%
- Snipers
- 1 · $4.9K
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 59% ▼ 2 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 256
- Money on it
- $11K
- Holders' winrate
- 61%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| trx1whale | $5.3K | +$5.7K | 68% of 464 |
| Outsmartersniper | $4.9K | +$75K | 76% of 148 |
| Valen9whale | $4.7K | +$233K | 62% of 895 |
| gambler13 | $4.1K | -$18K | 45% of 205 |
| Warren-Buffettwhale | $3.1K | +$128K | 68% of 1,049 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1nvoker1whale | $945 | +$14K | 62% of 1,015 |
| ihorkoval | $879 | +$373 | 100% of 3 |
| anoin123 | $854 | -$4.9M | 60% of 1,429 |
| tetrosewhale | $783 | +$213K | 55% of 565 |
| 0x6eef9a85a5a74d650d1166f20b35525be8408ddd-1792261731938 | $562 | +$0 | - |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
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Questions
Who is betting on "Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?"?
439 wallets hold a position worth $61K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 439 of them. The largest Yes holder is trx1, with $5.3K on it, $5.7K lifetime profit over 464 markets (68% won). The largest No holder is 1nvoker1, with $945 on it, $14K lifetime profit over 1,015 markets (62% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 81¢ and No at 20¢, an 81% implied chance of Yes. $476K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
76% of the money on Yes and 59% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 16 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 9 points. A week ago it was split.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.