Who's betting on “France declares state of emergency by October 31, 2026?”?
Politics · $364K volume · Ends November 1, 2026 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 3¢ and No at 97¢, a 97% implied chance of No. $364K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 1, 2026.
32% of the money on Yes and 66% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 34 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 18 points.
380 wallets hold a position worth $126K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 368 of them. The largest Yes holder is BTCbyBTC, with $1.2K on it, $521 lifetime loss over 201 markets (34% won). The largest No holder is 0xbcdc…e5b1, with $19K on it.
- Smart money share
- 32% ▼ 20 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 166
- Money on it
- $4.3K
- Holders' winrate
- 51%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 66% ▼ 4 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 214
- Money on it
- $121K
- Holders' winrate
- 72%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTCbyBTC | $1.2K | -$521 | 34% of 201 |
| anoin123 | $616 | -$4.9M | 60% of 1,429 |
| ItrustJesus | $346 | -$22K | 47% of 257 |
| LiquidatedDegenwhale | $255 | +$93K | 74% of 1,127 |
| azerty0 | $243 | +$2.2K | 82% of 11 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xbcdc…e5b1 | $19K | - | - |
| Parz1vaIwhale | $17K | +$817K | 72% of 1,198 |
| Bitcoin150K | $12K | -$11K | 76% of 222 |
| GOLADS96 | $9.5K | -$365 | 76% of 55 |
| tetrasewhale | $5.1K | +$965K | 65% of 1,185 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
More markets in France declares state of emergency by...?
- December 31$366K vol.Yes 16%No 85%Smart money split
- October 21$45K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: Yes
Who's betting on France declares state of emergency by...? →
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Questions
Who is betting on "France declares state of emergency by October 31, 2026?"?
380 wallets hold a position worth $126K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 368 of them. The largest Yes holder is BTCbyBTC, with $1.2K on it, $521 lifetime loss over 201 markets (34% won). The largest No holder is 0xbcdc…e5b1, with $19K on it.
What are the Polymarket odds for "France declares state of emergency by October 31, 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 3¢ and No at 97¢, a 97% implied chance of No. $364K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 1, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
32% of the money on Yes and 66% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 34 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 18 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 1, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.