Who's betting on “France declares state of emergency by December 31, 2026?”?
Politics · $366K volume · Ends January 1, 2027 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 16¢ and No at 85¢, an 85% implied chance of No. $366K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
82% of the money on Yes and 79% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it leaned No, by 11 points.
210 wallets hold a position worth $74K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 199 of them. The largest Yes holder is LiquidatedDegen, with $2.4K on it, $93K lifetime profit over 1,127 markets (74% won). The largest No holder is 0xa42cb6a59dc15f44913eef89bd4d7f897d968d83-1790921459565, with $36K on it, $1.8K lifetime profit.
- Smart money share
- 82% ▲ 24 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 135
- Money on it
- $12K
- Holders' winrate
- 57%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 79% ▲ 10 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 75
- Money on it
- $63K
- Holders' winrate
- 60%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| LiquidatedDegenwhale | $2.4K | +$93K | 74% of 1,127 |
| Fuentes31whale | $1.5K | +$37K | 55% of 1,081 |
| Yakira2025noise | $984 | +$36K | 30% of 44 |
| lamerguez | $775 | +$698 | 100% of 2 |
| grinder1011whale | $528 | +$21K | 46% of 477 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa42cb6a59dc15f44913eef89bd4d7f897d968d83-1790921459565 | $36K | +$1.8K | - |
| GoriIIawhale | $7.0K | +$542K | 72% of 417 |
| JambonMogettes | $5.6K | -$123K | 31% of 139 |
| Max3 | $3.0K | -$50K | 83% of 23 |
| TBill1whale | $2.8K | +$85K | 55% of 502 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
More markets in France declares state of emergency by...?
- October 31$364K vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- October 21$45K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: Yes
Who's betting on France declares state of emergency by...? →
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Questions
Who is betting on "France declares state of emergency by December 31, 2026?"?
210 wallets hold a position worth $74K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 199 of them. The largest Yes holder is LiquidatedDegen, with $2.4K on it, $93K lifetime profit over 1,127 markets (74% won). The largest No holder is 0xa42cb6a59dc15f44913eef89bd4d7f897d968d83-1790921459565, with $36K on it, $1.8K lifetime profit.
What are the Polymarket odds for "France declares state of emergency by December 31, 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 16¢ and No at 85¢, an 85% implied chance of No. $366K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
82% of the money on Yes and 79% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it leaned No, by 11 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.